双语时事:中国第三季度GDP可能大幅减速

2014-10-15 14:27:03来源：可可英语

　　A survey of executives at 200 export companies, trading firms and shipping agents in China inSeptember revealed that 54 per cent of respondents think over-invoicing of exports isresurgent, the highest levels since late 2013, according to China Confidential, a researchservice at the Financial Times.

　　根据英国《金融时报》旗下的研究性刊物《中国投资参考》(China Confidential)，9月针对200家出口企业、贸易公司和船运代理商的高管调研显示，54%的受访者认为，高开出口发票现象再次升至2013年末以来最火热的水平。

　　According to official statistics announced on Monday (see chart), exports rose 15.3 per centyear on year in September, up from 9.4 per cent in August. Imports, meanwhile, climbed 7.2per cent, up from a 2.3 per cent decline in August. The trade surplus hit an officialUS$30.9bn, down sharply from US$49.8bn in August.

　　周一公布的官方统计数据显示(见右图)，9月出口同比增长15.3%，增幅高于8月的9.4%。进口增长7.2%，而8月下降2.3%。官方的贸易顺差数字为309亿美元，较8月的498亿美元大幅下降。

　　However, the resurgent export numbers were also at odds with what the International MonetaryFund’s (IMF) downward revision of its global economic growth forecast this year to 3.3 percent from 3.4 per cent as it warned about weakness in Japan, Europe and Latin America.

　　中国出口数字飙升也与国际货币基金组织(IMF)下调全球经济增长预期的做法不一致。IMF警告，日本、欧洲和拉美各地经济均显露疲态，据此将今年全球增长预期从3.4%下调至3.3%。

　　In addition, China’s reported export resurgence does not correspond with various survey-based readings of export activity in September. The new export order sub-index of the officialmanufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) languished at around 50 points in September,indicating an expectation of scant growth.

　　此外，中国出口回暖与9月各项与出口活动相关的调查数据不一致。官方的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)显示，9月份新出口订单分类指数徘徊在50点左右，这表明受访者预期增长乏力。

　　GDP projections in Q3 could slump to a five-year low

　　预测：第三季度GDP增长率可能跌至5年来低点

　　Several economists are issuing projections that could signify China’s weakest quarter of GDPgrowth since the 6.6 per cent it posted in the first quarter of 2009, as sliding investment inproperty, waning manufacturing activity and dwindling credit growth combine. Third quarterGDP is expected to be announced next week.

　　根据多位经济学家发布的预测数字，随着房地产投资下降、制造业活动减少和信贷增长萎缩，中国经济可能出现自2009年第一季度以来最弱的季度增长。2009年第一季度GDP增长6.6%。预计中国将在下周发布第三季度GDP数据。

　　Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, reckons third quarter GDP will slide to 7.1 per centfrom an official 7.5 per cent in the second quarter and 7.4 per cent in the first. Jasper McMahonof London-based Now-Casting Economics sees a growth rate of 6.8 per cent, based on astatistical model. Craig Botham, emerging markets strategist at Schroders, sees a 7.3 percent expansion, with a risk that the actual figure could come in lower. Tang Jianwei, aneconomist at the Bank of Communications, also sees a 7.3 per cent rate.

　　瑞银(UBS)中国首席经济学家汪涛预计第三季度GDP增长率将降至7.1%。官方公布的一季度和二季度GDP增速分别为7.4%和7.5%。伦敦Now-Casting Economics的贾斯珀•麦克马洪(Jasper McMahon)使用一个统计模型测算，估计增长率为6.8%。施罗德(Schroders)新兴市场策略家克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)预计增长率为7.3%，并认为实际数据可能更低。交通银行(Bank of Communications)经济学家唐建伟也预计增长率为7.3%。

本文关键字: 中国第三季度GDP可能大幅减速