双语时事:中国第三季度GDP可能大幅减速

2014-10-15 14:27:03来源：可可英语

　　Such projections come after several signs that growth in September was laclustre, with a seriesof China Confidential indicators on discretionary spending, labour demand by companies, exportgrowth and freight volumes shipped either falling in the month or remaining at depresssedlevels (see chart).

　　在这些经济学家发布预测之前，已有多个迹象显示9月份增长低迷。《中国投资参考》编制的可支配支出指数、企业用工需求、出口增长和货运量等一系列指标在当月不是下降，就是保持低迷(见下图)。

　　Such trends do not augur well for the rest of the year or 2015. “My feeling is that the growthtarget will be lowered again next year as they must have realised by now that it is hard to hit7.5 per cent GDP growth without resorting to a stimulus that feeds their economic frailties,”said Craig Botham at Schroders.

　　此类趋势对今年剩余时间及2015年不是好兆头。施罗德的克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)表示：“我预感中国明年将再次下调增长目标，因为他们现在必定已经意识到，如果不采取刺激措施解决经济疲弱问题，就很难实现7.5%的增长。”

　　Botham added that Beijing was likely to adopt a “hard floor” for growth in 2015 of around 6.5per cent but attempt to reach around 7 per cent. He added that China was unlikely this year tounleash a general stimulus measure by loosening credit and more likely to concentrate ontargeted measures to boost affordable housing projects, lending by the larger banks, theprovision of capital to small and medium enterprises and various infrastructure projects.

　　博瑟姆补充称，北京方面很可能将2015年增长率“底线”定在6.5%左右，但会争取达到7%左右。他说，中国今年内不太可能采取放松信贷之类的全面刺激措施，而是更可能着眼于有针对性的措施，如增加保障房项目，促进各大银行放贷，向中小企业提供资金以及上马某些基础设施项目。

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