曾经的美国传奇高盛已盛况不再

2014-10-23 14:40:26来源：可可英语

　　Second, Goldman has traditionally generated big profits from “principal investments,” using itsown capital to trade in and out of stocks, take ownership positions in companies, and invest inprivate equity and hedge funds. The Volcker Rule, a pillar of the Dodd-Frank banking reformlegislation, bans proprietary trading and severely restricts the investments banks can make.This formerly lucrative channel is now mostly closed to Goldman.

　　其次，过去高盛大部分的利润都来自“自营投资”，即利用银行自有资金买卖股票，收购公司，以及投资私募和对冲基金。然而，多德弗兰克(Dodd-Frank)银行改革法案的主要规定“沃克尔法则”(Volcker Rule)禁止自营交易，同时严格限制银行投资。对高盛来说，这条原本利润丰厚的赚钱渠道目前已基本关闭。

　　As a result, Goldman’s profitability has suffered. From 2005 to 2007, Goldman delivered aspectacular return on equity of, on average, 28.4%. Since then, the bank has enjoyed justone excellent year. That was 2009, when markets began to thaw after the financial crisis andinvestors dumped bonds en masse, handing Goldman both huge volumes of trades andfantastic margins, or “spreads,” on those trades. Since 2012, its ROE has dropped to anaverage of 10.5% to 11%.

　　结果就是，高盛的盈利能力遭到重创。2005至2007年间，高盛的平均净资产收益率高达28.4%。之后，该行只有一年表现出色，那就是2009年，当时市场在金融危机后开始解冻，投资者纷纷抛售债券，给高盛带来巨大交易量和惊人的利润(或者说是这些交易中的“息差”)。自2012年以来，它的净资产收益率均值已经降至10.5%至11%。

　　Still, that’s not bad. A major reason for the decline: new regulations have forced all banks tolower their leverage. Goldman used to support $20 in assets with every dollar of equity;today, a dollar in net worth backs just $10.50 in assets. That’s a good thing, since it shouldsmooth the big swings in returns caused by high levels of debt. An ROE in the 10% to 11%range also looks good in a period where investors pocket just 2.5% on 10-year Treasurybonds. And Goldman’s ROE compares favorably to its rivals. Though it trails Wells Fargo(13.6%) and US Bancorp (12%), it waxes JP Morgan (8.3%), Citigroup (6.7%), and MorganStanley (6.5%).

　　不过，这也还不算坏。下降的主要原因是新的法规要求所有银行降低杠杆。高盛过去每一美元的股本可支持20美元的资产;现在一美元的净值只能支持10.50美元的资产。这是好事，因为它可以减轻高负债水平造成的巨大回报波动。在一个投资10年期美国国债只能获得2.5%收益率的时期，10%至11%的净资产收益率看起来也不错。而且高盛的净资产收益率和竞争对手相比仍有优势。虽然不及富国银行(Wells Fargo，净资产收益率13.6%)和美国合众银行(US Bancorp，净资产收益率12%)，但是明显优于摩根大通(JP Morgan，净资产收益率8.3%)、花旗银行(Citigroup，净资产收益率6.7%)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley，净资产收益率6.5%)。

　　For Goldman, the challenge is that an 11% ROE may be acceptable for now, but it will be farfrom adequate once interest rates rise. With treasuries back at their historic norms of 4% or5%, and highly rated corporate bonds offering a couple of points more, investors will wantbetter things from the likes of Goldman. Its profits, dominated by trading, are still vulnerableto sharp declines. In 2011, for example, Goldman earned a puny ROE of 3.6%. By contrast,the big banks can practically guarantee large increases in profits and ROE as interest ratesincrease. When that happens, they’ll benefit handsomely from the rising spread between thelow-cost deposits and the rates on their mortgages and corporate loans.

　　对高盛来说，挑战在于：虽然11%的净资产收益率目前尚可接受，但一旦美国利率上调，这就远远不够了。当美国国债回到4%或5%的历史标准收益率水平，高评级的公司债券也又多上涨了几个百分点，那时投资者就会希望能从高盛这些投资银行获得更好的回报。高盛的利润主要来自于交易，这一块仍很容易遭遇急遽下滑。例如在2011年，高盛的净资产收益率就仅有3.6%。相比之下，随着利率上调，其他大银行基本可以确保利润和净资产收益率大幅增长。如果加息，他们将可以在低成本存款和抵押贷款、以及公司贷款利率的息差扩大中获得丰厚利润。

　　It would bolster confidence if Goldman’s numbers were headed in the right direction. They’renot. Goldman is having difficulty finding profitable places to reinvest its earnings. It hasessentially admitted as much by re-purchasing $12.2 billion in its own shares since 2011. Butit’s still investing much of its earnings in the businesses, and those fresh investments aregarnering sub-par returns. Since 2005, its common equity base has increased from $23.5billion to $74.4 billion, an increase of $51 billion. But over those eight years, it’s added just$3.25 billion in earnings. So the return on newly added equity is a mere 6.4%.

　　如果高盛的收益率能够上涨，将大大提振市场的信心。但是事实却恰恰相反。高盛很难找到利润丰厚的领域进行再投资。实际上，该公司承认自2011年以来回购了高达122亿美元的股份。不过，仍然有相当一部分收入投入到各项业务上，这些新鲜的投资产生的回报差强人意。自2005年以来，其普通股的基数从235亿美元增加到744亿美元，增幅为510亿美元。但是这八年里，高盛的盈利仅增加了32.5亿美元。所以，新增股本的回报仅为6.4%。

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