可再生能源革命挑战行业旧秩序

2014-11-06 18:41:52来源：网络

　　Germany has spent more than $140 billion on its program, dangling guaranteed returns forfarmers, homeowners, businesses and local cooperatives willing to install solar panels, windturbines, biogas plants and other sources of renewable energy. The plan is paid for throughsurcharges on electricity bills that cost the typical German family roughly $280 a year, thoughsome of that has been offset as renewables have pushed down wholesale electricity prices.

　　德国已经在其能源转型方案上投入了1400多亿美元，并以固定收益诱惑有意安装太阳能板、风力涡轮机、沼气池等可再生能源设备的农民、屋主、企业以及当地的合作社。该方案的成本要通过征收可再生能源电价附加费来弥补，一个普通德国家庭每年大约要缴纳280美元，不过，由于可再生能源拉低了趸售电价，此项开支被抵消了一部分。

　　The program has expanded the renewables market and created huge economies of scale, withworldwide sales of solar panels doubling about every 21 months over the past decade, andprices falling roughly 20 percent with each doubling. “The Germans were not really buyingpower — they were buying price decline,” said Hal Harvey, who heads an energy think tank inSan Francisco.

　　德国的这一方案帮助扩大了可再生能源市场的规模，带来了巨大的规模效应——过去10年，太阳能板的全球销量每隔21个月就会翻倍，而销量每翻倍一次，价格就会降低20%左右。“德国人投入重金，买的不是电，而是价格的下降。”旧金山一家能源智库的负责人哈尔·哈维(Hal Harvey)说。

　　The ripple effects drove some American panel manufacturers out of business, promptingcomplaints about Chinese government subsidies to the manufacturers who seized much of themarket. But the decline also created an opportunity for American homeowners and forcompanies like Lennar.

　　在这种连锁反应下，美国的一些生产商被迫关门歇业，中国政府向占据了很大一部分市场份额的本国厂商发放补贴之举，引人抱怨。不过，价格的下降也为美国的屋主以及莱纳这样的公司带来了机会。

　　Wind power, too, has come down sharply in price in recent years, and it is now competitivewith the cost of new coal-burning power plants in parts of the United States.

　　近年来，风电价格也大幅下降。目前，风电在成本上可以和美国部分地区新建的燃煤电厂匹敌。

　　A Threat to Business

　　企业面临的威胁

　　The decline in the cost of renewable power spells potential trouble for companies thatgenerate electricity. They make a lot of their money at times of day when demand for power,and therefore power prices, are high. Solar power, even a small amount, could be especiallydisruptive, shaving wholesale prices during those peak periods.

　　可再生电力成本的下降，对电力生产企业构成了威胁。让这些企业大赚特赚的，是一天当中电力需求大、电价也随之升高的时段。而太阳能就算规模不大，也有可能给市场带来极大的冲击，把用电高峰期的趸售电价拉下来。

　　Though growing rapidly, solar power still accounts for less than 1 percent of American powergeneration, so the disruption has not yet been seen on a large scale in the United States. Butsome utilities, fearful of losing out as the power mix changes, have started attacking rules thatencourage solar panels. Others are taking the opposite tack, jumping into the solar marketthemselves.

　　尽管光电产业发展得很快，但光电产量在美国电力总产量中所占的比重还不到1%，因此美国市场尚未受到大规模的冲击。不过，有的公用事业公司担心自己因电源结构的变化而遭受损失，已经开始攻击那些鼓励使用太阳能面板的规则了。另外一些公司则采取了相反的策略，干脆投身到了光电市场之中。

　　Nipping at the heels of those utilities are fast-growing start-up companies that are putting tensof thousands of panels on rooftops and leasing them to homeowners for no money down, withWall Street banks providing the financing. The hot spot is California, which is aiming for 33percent renewable power by 2020 and seems increasingly likely to get there.

　　紧随这些公用事业公司之后的，是高速成长的初创公司，它们正把数以万计的太阳能板安在人们的屋顶上，并和屋主签下无需付押金的租约，为其提供资金支持的是华尔街的银行机构。加利福尼亚州被卷入了这股热潮之中，该州计划在2020年之前把可再生能源电力上网比重提高到33%，现在看来，实现这一目标的可能性正逐步加大。

本文关键字: 可再生能源革命挑战行业旧秩序