Older, More Diverse America by the Year 2100

Older, More Diverse America by the Year 2100

到2100年，美国将更老、更多元

【原文听力】

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　　By Gena Bennett

　　15 November 2023

　　The U.S. Census Bureau is a federal agency that researches information about America's population, housing, and economy.

　　The latest Census Bureau report shows that the U.S. population will decrease with low immigration, and older adults will outnumber children by the end of the century. The report also says that white, non-Hispanic people will account for less than 50 percent of the population.

　　The Census report offers an idea of what the nation may look like in the future. But it cannot predict unexpected events like a worldwide pandemic.

　　Paul Ong teaches public affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles. He said such predictions can help the U.S. prepare for change, from health care for old people to the number of schools for the young.

　　"Seeing that possibility also opens up opportunities for action," he said.

　　Population changes

　　Population changes caused by birth and deaths are more predictable. They may also be caused by changes in immigration policy. Because of that, the Census Bureau offers three different predictions through the year 2100 based on high, medium, and low immigration.

　　In all three situations, the U.S. will become older and more diverse. If there is low immigration, the population will decrease; medium or high immigration will increase the population.

　　By 2029, the report estimates that older people will outnumber children, with 71 million people over 65 as compared to 69 million under the age of 18. The aging of the population is important because this will mean fewer workers. An aging population also means more deaths than births.

　　The report estimates that, by 2025, the share of the U.S. population that is white and not Hispanic will be under 50 percent for the first time. Also, Asians will pass Hispanics as the largest group of immigrants by race or ethnicity.

　　Under the medium immigration estimate, the U.S. population reaches its highest total at more than 369 million people in 2081. After that, the Census Bureau predicts a slight population decline, with deaths overtaking births and immigration.

　　By the end of the 2090s, the report estimates that foreign population will make up almost 19.5 percent of people in the U.S. The number is currently at 13.9 percent.

　　Immigration

　　In the past, immigration was linked to economic opportunity in the U.S. Today, immigration is caused by climate change, social issues related to dictators and violence, as well as ever-changing feelings about immigrants in the country.

　　These issues make immigration more difficult to predict today, says Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology at the University of Southern California.

　　Aliana Mediratta is a 20-year-old student at Washington University in St. Louis. She welcomes a future with a more diverse population. She believes immigration "is great for our society and our economy."

　　But that optimism is affected by issues that seem to be getting worse, including climate change and gun violence.

　　"I feel like I have to be optimistic about the future," Mediratta said. She thinks that if she believes the worst will happen, it might stop her from doing the morally right thing, even if it is hard.

　　I'm Gena Bennett.

　　Mike Schneider reported this story for the Associated Press. Gena Bennett adapted it for VOA Learning English.

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　　由吉娜·贝内特撰写。

　　2023年11月15日。

　　美国人口普查局是一个研究美国人口、住房和经济信息的联邦机构。

　　最新的人口普查局报告显示，如果移民数量低，美国的人口将会减少，而且到本世纪末，老年人将超过儿童的数量。报告还指出，白人非西班牙裔人口将占总人口的不到50%。

　　人口普查报告为我们提供了一个关于未来国家可能的样貌的想法。但是，它不能预测像全球大流行病这样的意外事件。

　　保罗·王在加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校教授公共事务。他说，这样的预测可以帮助美国为变化做好准备，从老年人的医疗保健到年轻人的学校数量。

　　他说：“看到这种可能性也为行动开启了机会。”

　　人口变化出生和死亡引起的人口变化更具有可预测性。它们也可能由移民政策的变化引起。因此，人口普查局根据高、中、低三种移民情况，提供了到2100年的三种不同预测。

　　在所有三种情况下，美国都将变得更老、更多元化。如果移民数量低，人口将减少；中等或高移民将增加人口。

　　报告预计到2029年，老年人将超过儿童，65岁以上的人口将达到7100万，而18岁以下的人口将为6900万。人口老龄化很重要，因为这意味着劳动力将减少。人口老龄化也意味着死亡人数将超过出生人数。

　　报告预计，到2025年，美国白人非西班牙裔人口的比例将首次低于50%。此外，亚洲人将超过西班牙裔，成为按种族或族裔划分的最大移民群体。

　　根据中等移民预测，美国人口在2081年达到最高，超过3.69亿人。之后，人口普查局预测人口将略有下降，死亡人数超过出生人数和移民人数。

　　到2090年代末，报告预计外国人口将占美国人口的近19.5%。目前这个数字为13.9%。

　　移民。

　　过去，移民与美国的经济机会有关。今天，移民是由于气候变化、与独裁者和暴力相关的社会问题，以及对国内移民感情的不断变化引起的。

　　南加州大学社会学教授曼努埃尔·帕斯托尔表示，这些问题使得今天的移民更难以预测。

　　阿利亚娜·梅迪拉塔是圣路易斯华盛顿大学的一名20岁学生。她欢迎一个人口更多元化的未来。她认为移民“对我们的社会和经济非常有利”。

　　但是，包括气候变化和枪支暴力在内的问题似乎正在恶化，这影响了她的乐观态度。

　　"我觉得我必须对未来保持乐观，"梅迪拉塔说。她认为，如果她相信最糟糕的事情会发生，那可能会阻止她做正确的事，即使这很困难。

　　我是吉娜·贝内特。

　　这个故事由迈克·施奈德为美联社报道，吉娜·贝内特为美国之音学习英语改编。

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　　这个故事中的词汇

　　opportunity–n.机会，可能性

　　diverse—adj. 多样的，包括不同种类的人

　　medium—adj. 中等的

　　optimism–n. 对未来的乐观和自信