美国衰落与中国崛起无关中国短期内不会成为全球超级大国

2014-05-08 13:24:27来源：可可英语

　　First things first. China is not about to replace the US as the world’s superpower. Last week’s news that China’s economy was close to overtaking that of the US on a purchasing-power basis marked a statistical milestone. But little more.

　　首先让我们谈谈最重要的问题。中国在短期内不会取代美国成为全球的超级大国。上周有新闻报道称，中国按购买力平价计算的经济规模就要超越美国，这从统计上来说是一个里程碑，但其意义仅限于此。

　　China is neither able nor ambitious to step into America’s shoes. It will be a decade or so before it overtakes the US in dollar terms. The story of our age is that the US is increasingly unwilling – and in crucial respects, unable – to continue in the role it has played for the past 70 years. After America comes multipolarity – not China. The question is, what type? Will it be based on a system of US-framed global rules? Or will it be “après moi, le déluge”?

　　当前中国既没有能力也没有雄心承担美国的角色。中国按美元计算的经济规模还需要10年左右才能超越美国。我们这个时代的主旋律是，美国越来越不愿意——而且在某些关键方面也越来越没有能力——继续扮演其在过去70年一直扮演的角色。美国时代之后出现的是多极化——而非中国独大。问题是哪种形式的多极化?它将基于一套由美国框定的全球规则体系?抑或是“我死之后，哪管它洪水滔天”?

　　The shift in geopolitics is already well under way at both ends of the Eurasian land mass. Last week Barack Obama returned from a four-nation Asian tour of China’s neighbours, all of whom fear an expanding regional hegemon. The US president spends much of the rest of his time trying to shore up unity among those living in Russia’s vicinity, from Ukraine westwards. They too fear an increasingly predatory regional power. Two generations ago George Kennan framed America’s famous “containment” strategy for the Soviet Union. Today, the US is stumbling into dual containment of China and Russia.

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