德国经济基础虽然强劲但仍难逃困境

2014-09-15 12:05:42来源：可可英语

　　BLAMING Germany—or at least the austerityprescribed for the euro zone by Chancellor AngelaMerkel—for Europe's ills may be popular in France.But Germans are inclined, not without some pride,to see their economy as the strongest horse to pullthe euro zone out of its misery. Hence the fearcaused by a surprising update this month: realoutput shrank by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in thesecond quarter from the first, and manufacturing by1%.

　　为了解决在法国肆虐的欧洲经济问题，德国—至少是德国总理默克尔，制定了经济紧缩计划。但是德国并没有居功自傲，他们更倾向于将自身经济看作一匹最强壮的马，来拉动欧元区走出困境。因此，这种令人惊讶的上升也在这个月带来了担忧：从第一季度到第二季度，真实输出缩减调整到0.2%，制造业调整为1%。

　　Part of the explanation was statistical. Thanks to a mild winter, there was more constructionthan usual in the first quarter. But geopolitical crises, especially in Ukraine, had a bigger impact.German exports to Russia have plummeted. Given the timing, the drop was due less tosanctions already imposed than to expectations of more to come. Russia accounts for only 3%of Germany's total trade, so the losses were easily made up in higher exports elsewhere. Moredevastating is the rising uncertainty over Russia that is causing managers to delayinvestment. Germany's Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched benchmark, fell in August.

　　说明中有一部分是统计结果。暖冬的原因使得统计结果与第一季度同期相比有了更多的解释。并且由于地域政治危机，特别在乌克兰，产生了更大的影响。德国对俄出口直线下降，因为给定了时间减少了制裁，下降比预期中来的更猛烈。而俄罗斯仅占有德国贸易总额的3%，所以在高出口的地方更容易出现损失。更糟糕的是，俄罗斯持续上涨的不确定性，导致了投资经理人的投资延误，被广泛视为基准的德国IFO商业景气指数在八月份也出现下降情况。

　　Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying German economy still looks strong. Thefederal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains low: indeed, labour shortages are anincreasing problem. This applies to large businesses such as care for the elderly, but especiallyto many of the niches for which Germany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics, according tothe Cologne Institute for Economic Research.

　　除却这些新的风险，德国经济基础看起来依然强劲。财政预算趋于收支平衡，失业率也处在低水平范围：事实上，劳动力短缺问题日益严重。根据科隆经济研究所的报告，低失业率适用于那些负责照顾老人的大企业，特别是那些在德国境内十分著名的岗位，比如助听器声学。

　　Germany's best contribution to recovery in the euro zone would be to let wages rise.Whether they are already doing so will not become clear for months, because Germany reportsthe relevant statistics more slowly than most. But the willingness is there. In July JensWeidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, Germany's notoriously hawkish central bank,caused a sensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage should alsonudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40% of the medianwage.

　　德国对于欧元区恢复的最大贡献在于让工资上涨。无论他们是否在这样做，几个月之内情势也不会明朗，因为德国的相关统计数据比大部分统计慢很多，不过人们对此毫无异议。七月，在德国众所周知的鹰派中央银行——德意志联邦银行的行长延斯·魏德曼要求加薪，引起了轰动。他要求的薪资平均上涨幅度为3%。一个新的最低工资标准也可以推动工资上涨。这项在2015年生效的新规定将每小时工资定位8.5英镑，超过了平均水平的40%。

本文关键字: 德国经济基础虽然强劲