需要警惕新兴市场公司债券风险

2014-10-08 17:20:45来源：可可英语

　　In 2008 investors learnt about financial chainreactions. This was not simply because the demiseof Lehman Brothers hit other western groups; therewas also fallout for emerging market companies.

　　2008年，投资者领略到了金融连锁反应是怎么回事。这并非仅仅因为雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的垮台冲击了其他西方集团;新兴市场企业也感受到了冲击波。

　　Take a look, for example, at a fascinating report issued by the Bank for InternationalSettlements this week. It estimates that after the Lehman shock in 2008, about 50,000companies in emerging countries such as Brazil, China and Russia suffered $30bn in losseswhen the dollar suddenly surged in value as a safe haven currency. This was because thecompanies held derivatives contracts – and while these had seemed safe when the dollar wasweak, they unexpectedly produced losses after the Lehman shock because nobody hadexpected currencies to swing so wildly.

　　国际清算银行(BIS)最近发表了一份耐人寻味的报告。该报告估算，2008年雷曼冲击波过后，美元作为避险货币突然走高，导致巴西、中国和俄罗斯等新兴市场国家约5万家公司损失300亿美元。这是因为这些公司持有衍生品合约。尽管当美元汇率较低时，这些合约看来是安全的，但雷曼冲击波来袭后，它们意想不到地带来亏损，因为谁也没想到汇率波动幅度竟如此之大。

　　It is a lesson in unexpected market consequences in a tightly interconnected world. It isparticularly timely given that US Federal Reserve officials have this week signalled plans totighten monetary policy next year – which has, in turn, pushed the dollar to a 17-month high,since higher rates will make US assets more attractive.

　　在相互联系密切的世界上，这种意想不到的市场后果给我们上了一课。鉴于美联储(Fed)官员最近表示计划于明年收紧货币政策，这一课上得尤其及时。美联储发出的信号把美元汇率推高至17个月高点，因为加息将使美国资产更具吸引力。

　　This could easily create new shocks. Since 2008, western central banks have kept monetarypolicy so loose that global investors have gobbled up emerging market assets in a quest foranything that might produce returns. This has led to a striking, but largely unnoticed, shiftin the credit ecosystem: whereas companies in Russia, Brazil, China and India used to raisefunds by borrowing money from banks, the BIS notes they have increasingly been sellingbonds to asset managers instead.

　　这很可能带来新的冲击波。自2008年以来，西方央行一直维持着如此宽松的货币政策，以至于渴求收益的全球投资者竞相购入新兴市场资产。这导致信贷生态系统发生了一种重大但鲜为人知的变化：国际清算银行注意到，过去通过向银行贷款来融资的俄罗斯、巴西、中国和印度企业，现在越来越多地向资产管理公司出售债券。

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