新俄罗斯的概念体将成普京包袱

2014-10-10 15:38:40来源：可可英语

　　Tactical victories often end in strategic defeats.That is what Vladimir Putin is in for. The Russianpresident’s calculations appeared correct at first: thewest swallowed the annexation of Crimea, and theUkrainians did not resist for fear of all-out war. Thatput Russia on the path of military-patrioticmobilisation, enabling Mr Putin to claim absolutepower without resorting to mass repressions. Yet byturning Russia into a war state, Mr Putin hasunleashed the process he cannot stop and madehimself hostage to suicidal statecraft.

　　战术上的胜利往往会以战略上的失败告终。这就是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)将迎来的命运。普京打的算盘起初看起来是正确的：西方无奈接受克里米亚被吞并的事实，乌克兰由于害怕爆发全面战争而不敢反抗。这让俄罗斯走上了军事爱国主义的道路，从而使得普京能够不用依靠大规模肃反运动就能获得绝对权力。然而，通过将俄罗斯转变为一个战争国家，普京启动了一个他自己都无法停止的过程，自杀性的治国方略将让他身不由己。

　　He cannot now exit the war paradigm without risking a loss of power. For now he makes dealsand wears a peacemaker’s hat, but he will inevitably return to the besieged fortress. He canrule only by subjugating the nation in a way that only war can justify. Russians will remembertheir economic problems soon enough.

　　普京现在退出战争模式很可能导致自己丧失权力。就目前而言，他缔结协议，摆出调停人的姿态，但他将不可避免地重新陷入四面楚歌的状态。他只有发动战争才能合法地统治国家。俄罗斯人很快就会想起他们的经济问题。

　　Mr Putin has dismantled the post-cold war settlement that allowed him to engage economicallywith the west in the interests of the Russian petrostate, while keeping Russian society closed towestern influence. His aggression has ensured Russia’s Ukrainian neighbour will forever lookwest.

　　普京抛弃了冷战后达成的允许俄罗斯与西方展开经济往来的安排。这种安排符合俄罗斯石油国家的利益，而且还让该国社会不受西方的影响。他的侵略行径让其乌克兰邻居永远地将目光投向西方。

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