伊坎为何认为苹果股价应翻番

2014-10-14 10:28:46来源：可可英语

　　You have twade through thick paragraphs ofwheedling, flattery, product assessment andunabashed self-aggrandizement tget there, butburied in Carl Icahn’s rambling 4,200-word “lettertTim Cook” is his justification for the highest Appleprice target on Wall Street — nearly twice thecurrent consensus.

　　卡尔·伊坎在长达4,200字的《致蒂姆o库克的一封信》中，解释了他为什么给苹果(Apple)估出了目前整个华尔街最高的目标股价——几乎是当下股价的两倍。尽管你得耐着性子读完大段的甜言蜜语、谄媚讨好、产品评估和毫不害臊的自我夸耀之后，才能了解到这一点。

　　His argument takes some wild leaps — he likes tcompare P/Es in the hand with P/Es in the bush— but the math is there for anyone tsee: (I quote)

　　他的论述非常跳跃——他喜欢比较当下和预期的市盈率(P/E)——不过其他人都可以看看他的计算方法：(引用如下)

　　Apple, adjusting for net cash, currently sells at a P/E (price tearnings per share ratio) of only 8xour FY 2015 forecast, a significantly lower P/E than a broad market index, the S&P 500,which trades today at a P/E of 15x FY 2015 consensus.In contrast tthe S&P 500’s slowergrowth, we expect Apple tgrow its EPS by 30% in each of FY 2016 and FY 2017.

　　在经过净现金值调整后，根据我们对苹果2015年的每股收益预期，公司股票目前的市盈率(股价与每股收益之间的比值)只有8倍，远远低于大盘指数的整体水平——根据市场对2015年的平局预期，标普500指数目前的市盈率达到15倍。相较于标普500指数的缓慢增长，我们预计苹果的每股收益将在2016财年和2017财年分别上涨30%。

　　Our forecasted growth for FY 2016 and FY 2017 more than adequately justifies using a P/Emultiple of 19x our FY 2015 forecast, which along with net cash values Apple at $203 pershare today.

　　对2016和2017财年的增长预期让我们有充分的理由来使用基于2015年预期值19倍的市盈率来估算苹果股价，综合净现金值考虑之后可以得到苹果目前的合理股价应该达到203美元。The literary device of a“letter” tCook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEdoesn’t need tbe told how great Apple’sproducts are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.

　　The literary device of a “letter” tCook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEdoesn’t need tbetold how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.

　　从文学手法来说，这封致库克的公开信很快就跑题了。苹果的首席执行官不需要听伊坎再唠叨一遍苹果的产品有多么优秀，或是谷歌(Google)安卓系统的生态环境有多么“破碎支离”。

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