投资风险资本前景扑朔迷离

2014-10-14 11:52:31来源：可可英语

　　“Is now the time to double down, or to slam on thebrakes?”

　　“现在应该加大投资，还是急踩刹车?”

　　That was the question posed to me earlier this weekby a portfolio manager who has investments indozens of venture capital funds, including some ofthe industry’s most illustrious names. I’m not (quite)so egotistical as to think he would make multi-milliondecisions on my two cents, but the inquiry wassincere. This is an extraordinarily tricky time to beinvesting in venture capital, perhaps more so thanat any other time in the past two decades.

　　本周早些时候，一位投资组合经理向我提出了这个问题。他投资了数十家风险投资基金，包括业内最优秀的投资基金。我没有自负到以为他会因为我的一点小小建议便做出涉及数百万美元的投资决定，但他确实非常真诚。如今，投资风险资本，正处在过去二十年间最难以捉摸的时期，

　　To be clear, I’m not saying that investment returns are underwater. Quite the opposite. Venturecapital fund valuations have been climbing for years, and distributions appear to be at recordhighs thanks to vibrant IPO and M&A markets. For example, Harvard University’sendowment reported yesterday that its VC return for fiscal 2014 was 32.8% — compared to a15.4% return for its total portfolio and the S&P 500’s 21.38% gain over the same timeperiod.

　　需要明确的是，我并不是说投资收益正在缩水。事实恰恰相反。近几年，风险投资基金的估值在持续攀升，而生气勃勃的IPO(首次公开募股)和并购市场，推动风投基金派发的股息达到历史新高。例如，哈佛大学(Harvard University)的捐助基金昨天宣布，其2014财年的风险投资回报率为32.8%——而其投资组合的总体回报率为15.4%，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的同期回报率为21.38%。

　　But that’s the very problem: Limited partners are not investing a spot prices. They arecommitting to long-term funds that will (hopefully) begin generating returns several years out.And they worry that if we aren’t at a market top today, we’ll be there when it comes time tobegin harvesting — leaving their VC managers with overpriced portfolios that have relativelyfew exit opportunities.

　　但问题在于：有限责任合伙人并未投资现货价格。他们选择的投资对象，是(有望)能够在几年之后开始产生回报的长期基金。他们担心，即便市场现在尚未触顶，也必将在基金带来收益的时候到达顶峰——结果是，风险投资基金经理的投资组合定价过高，却只有相对较少的退出机会。

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