投资者对结构性风险缺乏认识市场环境将更凶险

2014-10-23 17:25:38来源：网络

　　If Guy Debelle was a hedge fund trader, he mighthave made a killing this week. Three days ago MrDebelle – a top official at Australia’s central bank –predicted that markets were heading for wildvolatility, since investors were naive aboutstructural risks. A “sizeable” number of them, heobserved, probably presumed that they could exittheir positions before any sell-off. “History tells usthat this is generally not a successful strategy,” hewarned. “The exits tend to get jammedunexpectedly and rapidly.”

　　假如盖伊•德贝尔(Guy Debelle)是一名对冲基金经理，那么本周他已经大赚了一笔。三天前，这名澳大利亚央行的高官预言，由于投资者对结构性风险缺乏认识，市场将出现剧烈的波动。他表示，数量“可观的”投资者很可能认为，他们能在发生任何抛售前退出自己的头寸。“历史告诉我们，这一策略总体上是不成功的，”他警告称，“出口往往很快就会变得出人意料的拥挤。”

　　A day later his prediction came true. On Wednesday volatility exploded in the markets,prompting the price of Treasury bonds to swing wildly and European stocks and bonds tomove violently. While these swings may fade in coming days, the importance of Mr Debelle’smessage will not. This week’s gyrations have shown that the question of “liquidity” – thedegree to which assets can be traded – matters hugely.

　　刚过了一天，德贝尔的预言就应验了。本周三，市场波动性急剧上升，导致美国国债价格大幅起落、欧洲股市和债市剧烈震荡。这波震荡可能会在未来几天里减弱，但德贝尔传递出的消息的重要性不会减弱。本周的震荡已经证明，“流动性”(即资产交易的容易程度)问题极其重要。

　　What is worrying is liquidity appears to have decreased because unorthodox monetarypolicy experiments have collided with financial reforms and technological upheaval in anunexpectedly pernicious way. Or to cite Mr Debelle: “Market liquidity is structurally lowernow than it was in the past. [This] is not evident in a rising market when assets are beingbought, but will quickly become apparent in a down market.”

　　令人担忧的是，目前流动性似乎已经降低，原因是非常规货币政策实验与金融改革和技术变革发生了“撞车”，而这场“撞车”的危害超出人们意料。或者用德贝尔的话说：“从结构上看，当前的市场流动性低于过去。(这)在大家争相购买资产的上扬行情中并不显眼，但在市场下滑时很快就会显现出来。”

本文关键字: 投资者对结构性风险缺乏认识