投资者对结构性风险缺乏认识市场环境将更凶险

2014-10-23 17:25:38来源：网络

　　To a non-banker, that might seem odd. Since the 2008 crisis, western central banks haveflooded the system with cash and expanded their balance sheets by – depending on how youcalculate it – an eye-popping $7tn-$10tn. But the problem with “liquidity” is that the wordcan mean several things; having lots of money in the system does not guarantee that fundingwill flow freely, or that traders can cut deals. Systems flooded with cash can sometimes freeze.

　　对银行界以外的人而言，这看上去或许有些奇怪。自2008年的危机以来，西方央行向银行体系注入了巨额资金，将它们的资产负债表扩大了7万亿至10万亿美元(具体数字取决于你的计算方式)，规模令人瞠目结舌。但“流动性”的问题在于，这个词可以有多层含义;银行体系中资金充裕并不能确保资金就会流动自如、或者交易员就能达成交易。资金充裕的体系有时也会冻结。

　　Sometimes this occurs because investors lose faith in each other and stop doing trades, as theydid in 2008. But markets can also become illiquid because it is difficult to match buyers andsellers. This last problem, above all else, created this week’s wild price gyrations in Treasuriesand much else.

　　发生这种情况，有时是因为投资者彼此失去了信任、停止了交易，就像他们在2008年时那样。但是，难以撮合买方和卖方成交也会导致市场流动性不足——这是造成本周美国国债和其他许多市场价格剧烈震荡的首要原因。

　　There are at least four reasons behind the current liquidity problem. The simplest is lopsidedinvestor views. A Bloomberg poll last week revealed that 100 per cent of market economists –yes, 100 per cent – predicted that US interest rates would soon rise. This consensus isunusual, and it meant that when investors became gloomier about the economic outlook atlast weekend’s International Monetary Fund meetings, many tried to shift their tradingpositions at the same time.

　　在当前的流动性问题背后，起码存在四个原因。最简单的一个就是投资者的看法“一边倒”。上周彭博(Bloomberg)的一项调查显示，100%的市场经济学家——没错，是100%——预测，美国的利率很快就会上升。这种共识非常罕见，它意味着，上周末国际货币基金组织(IMF)会议给出的经济前景让投资者感到更加悲观时，许多人试图在同一时间改变自己的交易头寸。

　　A second reason is that asset managers are becoming more prone to acting as a herd –reinforcing the challenge of matching buyers and sellers. This is partly because investors areincreasingly using similar benchmarks to judge performance. The biggest fund managers arealso surging in size, creating more industry concentration. In emerging markets, forexample, the Bank for International Settlements estimates that the top 20 global assetmanagers hold 30 per cent of all bonds and equities – double the level a decade ago. Similartrends can be seen in other markets

　　第二个原因是，资产管理公司越来越倾向于像羊群一样行动——这加剧了交易撮合上的挑战。这一现象的部分原因在于，投资者越来越多地使用相似的基准来评判市场的表现。大型基金管理公司的规模也在快速膨胀，行业集中度变得更高。比如，国际清算银行(BIS)估计，最大的20家全球性资产管理公司持有新兴市场的全部债券与股票的30%，这一比例两倍于10年前。在其他市场，也可看到类似的趋势。

　　A third issue is the growing use of computer programs to execute trades. In theory this shouldmake markets more liquid since computers can match trades around the world at lightningspeed. But the programs that techies at hedge funds and banks create tend to look alike.Computers – like humans – are thus moving as herds, intensifying the imbalance.

　　第三个原因在于，证券交易正越来越多地通过计算机程序来执行。这理应增强市场流动性，因为计算机可以在世界范围内以闪电般的速度撮合交易。但是，对冲基金和银行的技术人员开发出的程序往往很相似。结果，计算机像人一样呈现羊群行为，强化了失衡状态。

　　But the thorniest issue is regulation. In the past big investment banks often matched buyersand sellers by holding large inventories of securities. But since 2008 banks have slashed theirinventories by between 30 and 80 per cent (depending on the asset class) to meet tighter rules.This reduced their ability to act as market makers, and removed shock absorbers from thesystem,

　　不过，最棘手的原因在于监管。过去，大型投行常持有大量证券以撮合交易。但自2008年以来，银行已将所持的证券砍掉了30%至80%(具体数字取决于资产类别)，以满足更严格的监管规则。这降低了它们的做市能力，从银行体系中抽走了“减震器”。

　　Is there any solution? Central bankers have debated whether government bodies should makemarkets in a crisis. Regulators are also moving to impose curbs on automated tradingprograms, and the US Office of Financial Research is trying to monitor investor herds withmore precision. Unsurprisingly, private sector banks are now lobbying for another potential“solution”: a reversal of recent regulatory rules.

　　有什么解决方案吗?就政府部门在危机中是否应出面做市，央行官员们展开了辩论。监管人士也在采取行动限制自动交易程序，美国金融研究办公室(US Office of Financial Research)正试图更加精确地监控投资者的羊群行为。令人不感意外的是，私人部门银行业现在正游说官方采纳另一种可能的“解决方案”：重新放松监管。

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