双语新闻：中国房地产泡沫已正式破裂

2014-05-07 13:59:56来源：可可英语

　　所以野村这次能否预测成功还有待时间考验。

　　Nomura bases a lot of its argument on the observation that that property investment turned negative in four of China's 26 provinces in the first quarter of 2014, and in two of them, Heilongjiang and Jilin, the fall was greater than 25%. To Nomura, that's a warning sign of similar problems to come in other Chinese provinces.

　　野村的观点很大程度上基于观察。野村观察到，在2014年第一季度，中国26个省份中有四个省份的房地产投资是负值，其中即黑龙江和吉林的降幅超过了25%。对于野村来说，这是一个令人警惕的信号，类似的问题可能出现在中国其他省份。

　　Falling investment leads to falling levels of construction and sales. And given the property market's huge role in the Chinese economy, declining growth in the property sector means declining growth in GDP.

　　投资下降导致房地产开工和销售水平滑坡。考虑到房地产市场对中国经济的巨大影响，房地产行业增速放慢就意味着GDP增速放缓。

　　In one regard, Nomura may be conservative. It estimates that real estate and related industries, such as steel and cement, account for 16% of China's GDP. Other economists put the figure at around 25%.

　　从一方面来看，野村可能是保守的。该行估计，房地产及钢材和水泥等相关产业占中国GDP的比重为16%。其他经济学家给出的比重则为25%左右。

　　Shortly after Nomura released its report, UBS came in with its own real-estate assessment, which was also a downer, but less so. The 'government still has the means and willingness to mitigate a property downturn,' UBS said. Those policies include increasing infrastructure investment and relaxing property policies. Even so, UBS downgraded its 2014 forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% and its 2015 forecast to 6.8% from 7% to reflect its worries about the property sector.

　　野村公布报告后不久，瑞银(UBS)也公布了自己的房地产评估报告。这份报告也看空楼市，但看空程度不及野村。瑞银说，政府仍有意愿和办法来减轻房地产滑坡的影响。这些政策包括扩大基建投资和放宽房地产政策。尽管如此，瑞银仍将2014年GDP增速预期从7.5%下调至7.3%，将2015年GDP增速预期从7%下调至6.8%，以便体现该行对中国房地产行业的担忧。

　　Certainly, the news in the real-estate sector hasn't been good this year--although a number of analysts still expect China to make the government's GDP target of 7.5% growth.

　　尽管一些分析师仍预计今年中国将完成政府所设GDP增长7.5%的目标，但毫无疑问的是，今年房地产行业的消息一直不太好。

　　Private data provider China Real Estate Index System said property sales by volume in the 44 cities they track fell 9% in April from the prior month and 19% compared with a year earlier. Average home prices, meanwhile, rose 0.1% in April from March and 9.1% from a year earlier. The sequential gains were the lowest since mid-2012, when the housing market turned around after the last downturn. This price index started only in 2010.

　　私营数据提供商中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System) 公布，4月份该系统监测的44个主要城市房产累计成交面积环比下降9%，同比下降19%。该系统还公布，4月份全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨9.1%，环比涨幅创2012年年中房价止跌以来的最低水平。中国房地产指数系统仅从2010年才开始发布“百城价格指数”。

　　The government has lousy policy choices, Nomura argues. Continue with minimal stimulus and GDP growth could fall below 6% this year. On the plus side, developers wouldn't add much to China's long-term housing and debt problems.

　　野村认为，政府的政策选择极为有限。如果继续执行微刺激措施，那么今年的GDP增速可能会降至6%以下。有利的一面是，开发商不会加剧中国长期存在的住房和债务问题。

　　Alternatively, ramp up monetary and fiscal policy by, say, cutting by 0.5% the reserves that banks hold in the central bank and by turbo-charging government spending, and the government could achieve 7.4% growth this year, Nomura estimates.

　　另外一种选择是，加大货币和财政政策的力度，比如，将银行存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点，同时大规模增加政府支出。野村预测，这样做政府可能会将今年的经济增长率提高至7.4%。

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