双语新闻：中国房地产泡沫已正式破裂

2014-05-07 13:59:56来源：可可英语

　　But taking that route would only worsen China's housing glut and delay the downturn by a year, the investment firm argues. In 2015, Nomura estimates, GDP would slow to 6.8%. While delaying problems for a year could give leaders more time to put in place reforms that could help China over the long term, Nomura also says China would have a one-in-three chance of GDP growth falling even faster by the end of 2015 and starting a 'hard landing,' which it defines as four consecutive quarters of GDP growth below 5%.

　　但野村认为，采取这样的方式只会令中国住房供应过剩的状况恶化，把经济下滑的时间推迟一年而已。野村预计，到2015年中国的GDP增速将降至6.8%。虽然把问题推后一年可以让领导人有更多时间落实那些能够在长期内对中国经济有利的改革措施，不过野村也认为，到2015年年底，中国的GDP增幅加速下降并开始出现“硬着陆”的可能性为三分之一;根据野村的定义，经济“硬着陆”指的是GDP增幅连续四个季度低于5%。

　　Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

　　真是左右为难。

　　It's possible China could get some unexpected good news that lifts the economy. The downturn in the housing market could turn out to be more gradual than Nomura expects or the global economy could turn around and give a big boost to exports. But Mr. Zhang isn't putting his bet on either. 'There isn't a panacea,' he says.

　　也可能会出现一些意想不到的好消息提振中国经济。比如住房市场的下滑步伐或许比野村预计的要更为平缓，或者是全球经济好转并极大地促进中国出口。不过张智威并不押注这两种可能性。他说，世上没有灵丹妙药。

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