双语新闻：如何为世界经济复苏注入活力

2014-05-08 14:20:54来源：可可英语

　　The IMF reckons that, in the 1980s and early 1990s, changes in monetary policy were the most powerful influence on real interest rates. In the late 1990s, fiscal tightening became the main force driving down real rates. Another important factor was the falling price of investment goods relative to consumption goods. Falling relative prices of information technology mean this is still true.

　　IMF认为，上世纪80年代到90年代初，货币政策的改变是对实际利率影响最大的因素。上世纪90年代末，财政紧缩成为压低实际利率的主要因素。另一个重要因素，是投资品价格相对消费品价格不断降低。信息技术价格相对下降意味着，眼下情况仍然如此。

　　Since the late 1990s, however, much has changed. In emerging economies the savings rate has gone up, largely because incomes were rising. Investors began to favour assets deemed safe. Most importantly, recent financial crises have caused investment to collapse and private savings to jump in the affected economies.

　　但自从上世纪90年代末以来，情况发生了很大变化。在新兴经济体，储蓄率上升，主要是因为收入在增加。投资者开始青睐所谓安全资产。最重要的是，近来的金融危机导致在受到冲击的经济体中，投资显著减少、私人储蓄大幅增加。

　　The IMF argues that declining inflation risk has not contributed to the fall in long-term rates, since the “term spread” – the gap between short and longer-term rates – has not fallen. More important has been the effect of changes in national savings and investment. At the global level, savings must equal investment. So changes in the observed global savings rate will tell us nothing about whether there has been a growing “savings glut” – by which I mean an excess of desired savings over desired investment. Only a shift in the price – the real rate of interest – reveals that.

　　IMF提出，通胀风险降低没有起到助力长期利率降低的作用，因为“期限利差”——指短期利率与长期利率之间的差值——并未下降。更重要的是国民储蓄与投资变化的影响。在全球范围来看，储蓄必然等于投资。所以，我们观察到的全球储蓄率，根本无法告诉我们“储蓄过剩”是否一直在升高。此处“储蓄过剩”是指超出意愿投资额的那部分意愿储蓄。唯有价格——实际利率——的变化能揭示这一点。

　　Strikingly, the 10-year real rate of interest was 4 per cent in the mid-1990s, 2 per cent in the 2000s, before the crisis, and close to zero thereafter. At least two factors lay behind this precipitous fall. Investment fell a long way in high-income economies but soared in emerging ones, especially China; yet the savings rates of emerging economies rose even more than their investment rates. Consequently, these economies became big net exporters of capital.

　　引人注意的是，上世纪90年代中，10年期实际利率为4%，到本世纪头十年(危机之前)降至2%，再后来降至接近零。10年期实际利率陡然下跌背后至少有两个因素在起作用。高收入经济体投资一路下滑，但新兴经济体——尤其是中国——投资却大举升高;不过，新兴经济体储蓄率增幅甚至比投资率增幅还要高。结果，这些经济体成了资本净出口大国。

本文关键字: 双语新闻如何为世界经济复苏注入活力