双语新闻：如何为世界经济复苏注入活力

2014-05-08 14:20:54来源：可可英语

　　Another possibility is a big fall in savings in emerging economies. But this seems unlikely, at least without a collapse in oil prices.** That leaves the option of sustained fiscal deficits in high-income countries, ideally to be invested in infrastructure. Housing-related credit booms are a far worse option. Redistribution towards the spenders seems quite inconceivable.

　　第二个可能药方，是新兴经济体储蓄率大幅下降。但这似乎不可能实现，至少油价不暴跌的话就不太可能实现。那就只剩下一个选择，即高收入国家维持财政赤字，最好投资于基础设施。与房地产相联系的信贷繁荣则是一个糟糕得多的选择。通过再分配向花钱者倾斜看上去不可思议。

　　If real interest rates do indeed remain low for a long time, creditors are going to find life difficult. But managing the post-crisis public finances should be far easier than the hysterics assume. A really big question in such a world is whether conventional inflation targets might be too low, because they do not give enough room for real interest rates to fall as far below zero as necessary.

　　如果实际利率确实长期维持在低水平，那么债权人未来会觉得日子不好过。但管理后危机时代的公共财政，应当会比歇斯底里者认为的容易得多。如此世界一个真正的大问题，是常规的通胀目标定得可能太低了，因为没有给实际利率在必要时降至负值留下足够大的空间。

　　The immediate question, however is: how do we generate the demand that is needed to mop up potential global supply? Failure to answer that need in a sensible way was a leading cause of the crisis. Continued failure will blight the recovery or, worse, cause another bout of financial and economic upheaval. Do not imagine these challenges will soon vanish. They look like a semi-permanent condition.

　　不过，当前的紧迫问题是，我们应如何产生支撑潜在全球供应所离不开的需求?不能以合理方式满足这一要求是过去引发危机的一个主要因素。这一要求继续得不到满足将阻碍复苏，更严重者，将引发又一轮金融与经济动荡。不要臆想这些挑战不久后就会消失，它们看来就像一种半永久性的病症。

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