双语新闻：如何为世界经济复苏注入活力

2014-05-08 14:20:54来源：可可英语

　　Emerging countries also largely nationalised this capital outflow. Their governments then tended to buy “safe” assets, especially to put in the foreign exchange reserves. This helps explain the portfolio move towards highly rated bonds.

　　新兴国家也将大部分资本输出国有化了。于是，它们的政府倾向于购买“安全”资产，尤其是作为外汇储备。这有助于解释投资组合为何向高评级债券倾斜。

　　The story, in brief, is that shifts in the balance between desired real savings and investment generated a large fall in real interest rates. These were accompanied by changes in portfolio preferences towards safe assets and the collapse in the pre-2000 equity bubble. The shift in the distribution of income towards capital and highly paid employees in high-income countries also weakened demand. The central banks then responded with aggressive monetary policies. These supported explosions of credit generally linked to house-price surges. Both imploded in the crisis. As Lawrence Summers has argued, the high-income economies seem to be worryingly unable to generate good growth in demand without extreme credit instability.

　　简言之，情况是意愿实际储蓄与意愿实际投资之间的差额发生变化，导致实际利率大幅下降。另外两个因素是，投资组合偏好发生变化、向安全资产倾斜，以及2000年前股票泡沫的破灭。在高收入国家，收入分配向资本方和高薪员工倾斜，也弱化了需求。于是各中央银行推出了激进的货币政策。这推动了信贷大膨胀，信贷大膨胀通常看来与房价猛涨脱不开干系。信贷和房价在危机中都崩溃了。正如劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)所指出那样，令人担忧的是，高收入经济体似乎无法在不制造极端信贷动荡的前提下，推动需求强劲增长。

　　This is not a short-term story. The label “secular stagnation” looks apposite. The IMF agrees that real interest rates could remain low for a prolonged time. If governments persist with planned tightening of fiscal policies, this seems certain. If investment rates fell sharply in China, global real rates might need to fall still further. That is difficult while inflation is so low.

　　这种情况并不是短期内的。“长期增长停滞”(secular stagnation)看上去是个贴切的论断。IMF赞同实际利率可能在长期内维持低位的观点。如果各国政府坚持按计划实行紧缩的财政政策，则看来注定会出现这种局面。如果中国投资率大幅下降，那么全球实际利率可能需要进一步下降。在通胀如此低的情况下，这很难办到。

　　What might reverse this? The obvious possibility is a jump in investment in high-income countries driven by the relatively high expected returns on equity. The obstacles here are threefold. One is that chief executives are not rewarded for investing for the long term; another is that investment goods are becoming cheaper all the time; and another is that, when the future is uncertain and the economy sluggish, companies rationally prefer to wait before they invest.

　　靠什么才能扭转这一局面?一个显而易见的可能药方，是相对较高的预期股本收益率驱动高收入国家的投资猛增。这里有三重障碍。一是首席执行官没有动力为长期而投资;另一个是投资品的价格一直在降低;最后一个是，当未来不确定、经济又低迷时，企业出于理性考虑，愿意观望而不愿投资。

本文关键字: 双语新闻如何为世界经济复苏注入活力