双语新闻：专访罗奇破解美中经济失衡之道

2014-05-13 13:23:46来源：可可英语

　　Mr. Roach argues that both the U.S. and China need to find new ways to manage their economies. America needs to start saving more, he says, while China needs to start serving its own consumers -- starting with a better social safety net. Edited excerpts:

　　罗奇认为，美国和中国都需要找到管理本国经济的新办法。他表示，美国需要开始增加储蓄，而中国需要开始服务于本国消费者，首先要从改善社会保障体系入手。以下是采访的编辑摘录：

　　Why did you write the book?

　　你为什么会写这本书?

　　There's a lot of misinformation and outdated views about China in the U.S. I hope I know as much as almost anybody about the intersection between the two economies, and I thought the relationship needed to be addressed from both sides.

　　在美国，有很多关于中国的错误信息和过时看法。关于美中经济的交叉点，我所知道的和大多数人一样多。同时，我认为美中经济之间的关系需要分别从两国各自的方面探讨。

　　What do you think is the biggest misunderstanding Americans have about China?

　　你认为美国人对中国最大的误解是什么?

　　The U.S. continues to look at China through the same lens through which it sees itself. It looks at excess investment or low consumption or rising debt and concludes that China is doomed. The U.S. misses the fact that China not only has a different system but it also is at a totally different stage in its development. It's certainly facing some daunting problems, but moving from a producer model to a consumer model built on urbanization still requires very high investment ratios. It still requires an active government promoting state-directed infrastructure and real estate construction. We can't rely on our own model to assess China's progress or lack thereof.

　　美国仍在以看待自己的方式看待中国。美国看到中国投资过度、消费偏低以及债务增加，就认定中国经济必将崩溃。美国忽略了一个事实，那就是中国不仅有一套不同的体系，而且处在和美国完全不同的发展阶段。中国显然正面临一些严峻的问题，但从生产型向基于城镇化建设的消费型经济模式转变仍需要很高的投资比例。中国依然需要积极推进政府主导的基础设施和房地产建设。美国不能用自己的模式去评估中国的进步和不足。

　　How would you rate China's chances of escaping from the so-called 'middle-income trap' that other emerging economies have faced?

　　你认为中国避开其他新兴经济体遇到的所谓“中等收入陷阱”的机率有多大?

　　I think the chances are reasonably good. Most developing economies do get caught in the middle-income trap largely because they stick with the same model that led them from early-stage development to middle income and they think it can provide the impetus for moving to higher income -- and it usually doesn't. China's changing the model, which is important, and so I'm optimistic China is on a course to escape this dreaded trap.

　　我认为这一机率相当高。多数发展中经济体确实陷入了中等收入陷阱，主要原因是沿用了帮助他们从早期阶段发展到中等收入阶段的模式，而且他们认为该模式能提供进入更高收入阶段的动力，而事实通常并非如此。中国正在改变发展模式，这很重要。我相信中国正走在一条能够避开这一可怕陷阱的道路上。

　　What are the advantages of China's relatively centralized system of economic planning, compared with the approach in the U.S.?

　　与美国的做法相比，中国相对集中的计划经济体制有何优势?

　　One word: strategy. Strategies don't always work, but all economies need some form of strategy. The United States is faced with daunting transitions right now and it has no strategy -- and it's suffering because of that. We operate on a very short-term basis. That constrains us from being proactive and planning for the future on issues like saving, U.S. competitiveness, and how to address income inequality. Politicians are afraid of having a debate because they know that when we make an effort to come up with solutions to our long-term problems there's likely to be some pain along the way. We don't have courageous leaders who are willing to take those risks.

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