双语新闻：专访罗奇破解美中经济失衡之道

2014-05-13 13:23:46来源：可可英语

　　一句话，战略。战略并非总能奏效，但所有的经济体都需要某种形式的战略。美国目前面临着艰巨的转型任务，但因缺乏相应的战略而遇挫。我们的运作着眼于极短期。这会制约我们的主动性，制约我们在储蓄、美国的竞争力以及解决收入差异等问题方面为未来做打算。政界人士担心展开论战，因为他们知道当我们努力为长期问题找到解决方法时，随之而来的很可能是要受些苦。我们缺乏甘愿冒险的勇敢领导人。

　　You argue that the U.S. will need to find ways to save more without relying on savings imported from overseas. How can this be achieved?

　　您说美国将需要设法在不依赖来自海外储蓄的前提下增加储蓄。如何实现这一点呢?

　　First and foremost, we need to reduce the long-term budget deficit. But families also need to get their saving rate back up. American families were duped by bubbles, especially property bubbles, into believing that they had discovered a new way to save and didn't have to save out of their income. That bubble burst and they're left with no savings.

　　首先，我们需要减少长期预算赤字。但家庭也需要提高储蓄率。过去，美国家庭被泡沫所蒙蔽，特别是房地产泡沫，他们以为自己找到了一条存钱的新途径，不必把收入存起来。泡沫破裂了，他们的积蓄也随之付诸东流。

　　The saving rate now is close to 4%, versus a 30-year average of about 9.5% at the end of the last century. It's as low as it's ever been for any leading nation in modern history. We need to expand existing incentives like 401-Ks and IRAs, we need to provide savings incentives explicitly for low-income individuals. Then we need to address the current unsustainable monetary policy, in which zero interest rates have crushed returns for a generation of savers.

　　目前储蓄率接近4%，而截至上个世纪末的30年平均储蓄率约为9.5%。美国目前的储蓄率是现代历史中主要国家中最低的。我们需要扩大现有的激励计划，比如401K和个人退休账户(IRA)，我们需要为低收入个人提供明确的储蓄激励措施。我们还需要应对难以持续的现行货币政策。当前货币政策推行的近零利率压缩了一代储户的回报。

　　You've been pretty critical of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Why is that?

　　你经常批评美联储的宽松货币政策。这是为何呢?

　　These policies were put in place in the depths of a horrific crisis. They were emergency measures. The emergency is long over, and yet the policies are still on emergency settings. When excess liquidity gets combined with what's still a weak economy with considerable slack in labor and product markets, the odds suggest that it shows up in asset markets, either at home or abroad. It's a recipe for instability in financial markets and for potential future bubbles. Which bubbles they are, no one knows.

　　这些政策是一场可怕的金融危机愈演愈烈时推出的。它们是应急措施。现在应急状态早已过去，但这些应急政策依然在使用。当流动性过剩，而经济依然疲弱，劳动力和产品市场状况仍不振时，可能发生的情况是，宽松政策的效果将在国内或者国外的资产市场得到体现。它是治疗金融市场不稳定的处方，但也可能在未来催生泡沫。泡沫会出现在哪里?没有人知道。

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