双语新闻：中国经济泡沫有可能戳破美国银行系统

2014-07-08 15:34:44来源：可可英语

　　Many of these loans might not be factored in the estimates that Fitch and others have put together to calculate U.S. banks’ exposure to China. For instance, sometimes commodities loans are structured as derivatives or swaps. Fitch says its China loan estimates do not factor in derivatives or guarantees.

　　惠誉和其他评级机构在估算美国银行系统的对华风险敞口时或许没有考虑这些贷款中的很大一部分。比如，大宗商品支持贷款有时候被结构化为衍生工具或掉期交易。惠誉表示，它的美国银行系统对华贷款预测值并没有把衍生工具和信用担保计算在内。

　　What’s more, when it comes to commodities, some banks might not even realize they are taking on China risk. The Citi loan that ended up sending money to China by way of the Qingdao port was made to Swiss commodities trading firm Mercuria. The commodities that Mercuria used to finance the loan were stored in Qingdao, on loan from a Chinese commodities company named Decheng Mining.

　　更重要的是，涉及大宗商品时，一些银行甚至可能没有意识到他们正在承受中国市场的风险。花旗集团那笔最终经青岛港流入中国的贷款，其实是发放给瑞士大宗商品交易商摩科瑞公司(Mercuria)的。摩科瑞公司用来办理这笔融资贷款的大宗商品储存在青岛，而这些大宗商品则是从一家名为德诚矿业(Decheng Mining)的中国大宗商品公司借来的。

　　And unlike other types of lending, banks typically don’t break out just how much money they have lent out based on accounting. “I have never seen any bank balance sheet that has that information,” says Haoziang Zhu, an economics professor at MIT who has studied commodity-based lending. “It’s hard to track.”

　　与其他类型的贷款不同，银行通常不会基于会计核算而详细披露它们究竟贷出了多少钱。“我从来没有见过包含这类信息的银行资产负债表，”研究大宗商品支持贷款的麻省理工学院(MIT)经济学教授朱浩翔(音译)说。“这是很难追踪的。”

　　And while the China-to-U.S. carry trade may seem like easy money, there are ways it can go bad. A drop in the yuan, which is down 3% in the past year, would cut into profits because a debtor company would need more of those to pay back the dollars they owe in the U.S. loan at the end of the transaction. Also, if you are financing a transaction with commodities, and commodities prices rise, that could erase some of your gains.

　　尽管在中国和美国之间从事利差交易看起来似乎很容易赚钱，但这种交易有可能玩砸。人民币币值下跌(在过去一年下跌了3%)将蚕食利润，因为在交易结束时，债务人公司需要用更多的人民币偿还他们所欠的美元债务。此外，如果你正在为大宗商品交易融资，一旦大宗商品价格上涨，那就有可能抹去你的一些收益。

　　That said, as long as interest rates between the U.S. and China remain this wide, the China carry trade will carry on.

　　尽管如此，只要中美之间依然保持这样大的利率差，中国的利差交易就将持续下去。

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