双语新闻：俄罗斯总统普京对抗西方国家制裁的经济账

2014-08-14 12:19:56来源：可可英语

　　Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and one of Mr Putin’s most trusted economic advisers,warned the president this week against going further down the path of hostility with the west,which he said was hurting business.

　　普京最信任的经济顾问之一、俄罗斯前财长阿列克谢•库德林(Alexei Kudrin)最近告诫普京称，不要在对抗西方的道路上越走越远。他说，那样会伤害俄罗斯的商业利益。

　　Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser close to Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, saysthere is a chance to repair things if Mr Putin acts now. “We can reset our relationship with thewest. We will never be the same as Poland or the Czech Republic, but we could return topragmatism and find reasonable terms with the west, as we have done before.”

　　与俄罗斯总理德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)关系密切的前克里姆林宫顾问伊格尔•尤尔根斯(IgorYurgens)说，如果普京现在采取行动，还有机会补救。“我们可以重置与西方的关系。我们绝不会变成波兰或捷克那样，但我们可以重回实用主义，与西方谈妥合理的条件，就像我们以前所做的那样。”

　　Mr Putin does not like the choice with which he is confronted. When he addressed the nation onthe downing of MH17 in a video message recorded in the early hours of Monday, he steppednervously from one foot to the other, his face sweaty and rigid, his eyes blinking heavily and aneyebrow twitching.

　　普京不喜欢摆在他面前的选择。在最近录制的一段视频中，普京就MH17航班被击落一事向全国发表讲话。视频画面显示，他紧张地不停切换站立支撑脚，脸上冒汗，神情僵硬，频繁眨眼，眉毛颤动。

　　The threat is that he could lose the solid economic ground that has underpinned his hold onpower for so long. Economists and executives believe that the latest US sanctions, which partlybar some Russian banks and energy companies from US capital markets, will hurt Russia’seconomy. While broader punitive measures from the EU could throw it off the rails.

　　他面临的威胁在于，可能会失去长期以来支撑他掌权的坚实经济基础。经济学家和高管们认为，美国最近推出的制裁措施——在一定程度上禁止某些俄罗斯银行和能源企业进入美国资本市场——将对俄经济构成伤害。而欧盟(EU)更全面的惩罚性措施，可能会使俄经济脱轨。

　　A total of $161bn in foreign debt owed by Russian banks and companies comes due over thenext 12 months, according to the central bank. “Given the relatively strong fundamentals ofRussian corporates, we believe that the external funding requirements are manageable, butwould be at risk if sanctions continue to increase in degree and in duration,” Jacob Nell, chiefRussia economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note this week.

　　俄央行数据显示，俄罗斯银行和企业有总计1610亿美元的外债将在未来12个月内到期。“考虑到俄罗斯企业相对强劲的基本面，我们认为当前的外部融资需求是可控的，但如果制裁程度继续加大、制裁时间继续延长，外部融资需求将面临风险，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席俄罗斯经济学家雅各布•内尔(Jacob Nell)上周在一份研究报告中表示。

　　VTB24, the retail arm of Russia’s second-largest lender, cut back new loans to smallbusinesses dramatically – “the first indicator of a general worsening of the situation with theeconomy”, Mikhail Zadornov, the state bank’s chairman, said on Wednesday. In the first half ofthe year, VTB24 gave out just 68.7bn roubles worth of new loans to small businesses, a dropof more than 20 per cent compared with the previous year.

　　俄罗斯第二大银行的零售部门VTB24大幅削减了对小企业的新增贷款，这家国有银行的董事长米哈伊尔•扎多尔诺夫(Mikhail Zadornov)上周三表示，“这是经济状况整体恶化的首个迹象”。今年上半年，VTB24仅向小企业新发放了价值687亿卢布的贷款，同比减少逾20%。

　　Economists say the growing squeeze will lead to a further decline in already anaemicinvestment. They also fear the rising pressures on the budget could lead to a smothering ofconsumer spending and exports which have kept the economy afloat so far. “The GDP growthforecasts range between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent for this year, but with these problems onthe horizon, we could well be headed into negative territory,” says the representative of aninternational economic organisation in Moscow.

　　经济学家表示，日益严重的资金吃紧将导致原本已经不足的投资进一步减少。他们还担心，不断上升的预算压力可能会抑制消费支出和出口，而这两者迄今为止维系了俄经济的正常运行。“今年国内生产总值(GDP)预期增长0.5%至1%，但随着这些问题的浮现，增长很可能变成负数，”一家国际经济机构驻莫斯科的代表表示。

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