双语新闻：俄罗斯总统普京对抗西方国家制裁的经济账

2014-08-14 12:19:56来源：可可英语

　　The kneejerk reaction of conservatives on Mr Putin’s team is to close ranks further and clamup. This week, government officials discussed resuming production of the Ilyushin 114, a smallpassenger aircraft, which ended two years ago. “It is a good time to make our own instead ofgetting a foreign one,” tweeted Dmitry Rogozin, the nationalist deputy prime minister who is incharge of the military-industrial complex.

　　普京班子里保守派的本能反应是进一步提升凝聚力和闭关锁国。上周，俄政府官员讨论了恢复小型客机伊尔-114 (Ilyushin 114)的生产，该机型已于两年前停产。“这是我们自主生产、停止向外国购买飞机的好机会，”持民族主义立场、主管军工联合体的俄副总理德米特里•罗戈津(Dmitry Rogozin)在Twitter上表示。

　　Mr Nell predicts that under such economic pressures, the Russian government will loosen itsbudget discipline, suspend its currency liberalisation plans and turn towards a more static,protectionist economic policy.

　　内尔预测称，在这样的经济压力下，俄政府将放松预算纪律，暂停汇率自由化计划，转向更为静态、保护主义的经济政策。

　　Three people with knowledge of economic policy discussions said conservatives in favour ofisolationist policies were gaining the upper hand amid accusations by western governmentsagainst Mr Putin and the threat of further sanctions. “It has become a lot easier to argue alongthe lines of, ‘let’s close the doors, we can do just fine without them’,” said one.

　　三名了解经济政策讨论的人士称，在西方政府指责普京并威胁实施进一步制裁的背景下，倾向于孤立主义政策的保守派正占据上风。其中一人表示：“现在提出‘关上大门，没有他们我们做得也不错’这样的观点，要远比以前更容易得到认同。”

　　Russian business, although very careful not to comment on politics, is terrified at thatprospect. Many of the country’s large groups could be forced by more sanctions and an inwardturn by Russia to sell overseas assets, reduce investment and rely mostly on governmentcontracts. Smaller companies could be hit hardest in any credit crunch because they lack thepolitical connections to soften the blow.

　　俄罗斯企业虽然非常小心地不去谈论政治，但仍对这种前景感到恐惧。在更多制裁和俄罗斯变得更加锁国的影响下，俄罗斯许多大企业可能会被迫出售海外资产、削减投资，主要依赖政府合同过活。万一发生信贷紧缩，最受影响的可能是中小企业，因为它们缺乏能够缓解冲击的政治人脉。

　　Some western analysts argue, however, that Washington could be mistaken in its calculationthat raising the pressure on Mr Putin will make him change course.

　　然而，一些西方分析人士辩称，华盛顿方面的盘算可能是错误的，加大对普京施压可能并不会使他改弦易辙。

　　“Sanctions will be costly to Russia; there is no disputing that . . . But if the motivation is defenceof vital national interests and survival, Russia – like any state – will resort to importsubstitution and even more radical sorts of interventions to defend itself, no matter what thecost,” Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes wrote in a paper for the Brookings Institution in May. “History tells us that Russians can endure enormous hardship. Coping and survival are partof Russian history and the Russian national identity.”

　　“制裁将给俄罗斯带来沉重代价，这是毋庸置疑的……但如果动机是捍卫国家关键利益和谋求生存，那么俄罗斯将像任何国家一样，不惜代价地寻求用国货来替代进口货，甚至采取更为激进的干预措施来保护自己。”克利福德•加迪(Clifford Gaddy)和巴里•伊克斯(Barry Ickes)今年5月在为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)撰写的论文中写道，“历史告诉我们，俄罗斯人能够忍受巨大的苦难。应对艰难和谋求生存是俄罗斯历史和俄罗斯民族认同的一部分。”

　　So far, Mr Putin is not showing his hand. At a national security council meeting this week, hesaid Russia was not facing a direct threat to its sovereignty right now – a remark widelyinterpreted as a signal that he does not want to step up the tension in eastern Ukraine.

　　迄今为止，普京还没有展露意图。在上周的一次国家安全委员会会议上，他称俄罗斯主权目前还未受到直接威胁，该言论被普遍解读为他无意升级乌克兰东部的紧张局势。

　　But that will hardly be enough. With pro-Russian rebels having shot down two more Ukrainianmilitary aircraft since the MH17 crash and no sign that Russian support has stopped, Mr Putinremains on a confrontation course.

　　但这远远不够。MH17航班坠机后，乌克兰亲俄叛军又击落两架乌克兰军机，而且没有迹象显示俄停止了对这些叛军的支持，所以说，普京仍然在走对抗的道路。

　　And he alone will decide whether there is a way out. Nobody in Mr Putin’s inner circle has theclout to challenge him, says the Russian executive. “Have you ever tried to jump in front of aspeeding Kamaz truck?”

　　至于是否存在出路，则完全取决于普京一人。上述那名俄罗斯高管表示，普京的小圈子里没有任何人有实力对他构成挑战。“你试过跳出来挡在疾驰的卡玛斯卡车前吗?”

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