But it is not just Mr Putin’s skill at telling the west what he wants it to hear. He has also beenlucky – in his friends as well as his enemies. And by friends, I am not talking about the paidshills or leftwing western apologists who publicly defend him, disregarding his invade-the-neighbours, crack-down-at-home tendencies.
但普京不仅仅是善于告诉西方他希望让他们听到的东西。他还有运气——不论从朋友还是敌人来看。我在这里所说的朋友不是他花钱雇的托儿,也不是无视他对外侵略邻国、对内打压异己的倾向而公开为其辩护的西方左翼人士。
No, I am talking about the much more dangerous kind of sentiment that benefits Mr Putin andthrives in western capitals – and usually, though much more quietly, prevails in debates overwhat to actually do in response to Russian aggression. These folks do not pretend thatPutinism is great; they are not excusing his human rights violations or the cartoonishcorruption of the Kremlin’s ruling elite. Usually, they are just being “realists”. Germany andother parts of Europe are too dependent on Russian energy to confront Moscow; the US,while terribly sorry, does not have a true “national interest” in who controls which part ofeastern Ukraine. Escalation could lead to a far more dangerous crisis, they argue, oftenpersuasively, in this centennial anniversary of Europe falling into the Great War.
我说的朋友是那种危险得多的情绪,这种让普京受益的情绪在西方各国非常盛行,而且虽然更加不动声色,却通常在针对俄罗斯侵略行为应采取何种实际行动的辩论中占据主导地位。这些人不会佯称,普京主义非常伟大,他们没有为他侵犯人权或克里姆林宫执政精英夸张的腐败行径辩解。通常来说,他们只是“现实主义者”。德国和其他欧洲国家过于依赖俄罗斯的能源,从而无法与莫斯科对抗;美国尽管表示极为遗憾,但它在谁控制乌克兰东部哪个部分的问题上没有真正的“国家利益”。在欧洲陷入一战一百周年之际,他们声称紧张局势升级可能导致更为危险的危机,而且这种说法常常颇有说服力。
And there is much validity to these arguments, which also have the benefit of being exactlywhat policy makers in an exploding world generally want to hear. The Washington Post’s DavidIgnatius recently characterised the debate about Mr Putin in the west as one between the“squeezers” and the “dealers”: well, these are the dealers, and they are ready to make a deal.
这些观点很令人信服,也正是政策制定者们在一个冲突不断的世界里通常希望听到的观点。《华盛顿邮报》的大卫•伊格内修(David Ignatius)最近将西方关于普京的辩论描述为“挤压者”和“交易者”之间的辩论:恩,这些是交易者,他们准备缔结交易。
Of course, Mr Putin’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula this year and the downing of MalaysiaAirlines Flight MH17 by a Russian-supplied surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine didprovoke a real response: sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, its energy modernisation,threats of more. There has been nothing more infuriating to US President Barack Obama andhis advisers than being told time and again by his hardline Republican critics that he has beensoft on the Kremlin. Exasperated White House officials have told me repeatedly there would nothave been any European sanctions, never mind tough ones, without constant nudging andpushing from the White House. And I believe it.
当然,普京今年吞并克里米亚半岛,以及马航MH17航班在乌克兰东部被俄罗斯提供的地对空导弹击落,的确激起西方动真格的反应:对俄罗斯金融部门的制裁,对其能源现代化的禁制,还有威胁施加更多制裁。持强硬立场的共和党批评人士一再斥责美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)及其顾问对克里姆林宫太软弱了,没有比这更让后者恼火的了。愤怒的白宫官员们再三告诉我,如果不是白宫不断施压敦促,欧洲都不会实施制裁,更别说出台严厉的制裁措施了。我相信他们说的是真的。
本文关键字: 双语新闻 欧洲"现实主义者"让普京受益
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