西方该不该与叙利亚合作

2014-09-04 15:36:35来源：可可英语

　　In principle there are four options. The US and European governments could provide groundforces. But, with widespread hostility to renewed military involvement following wars in Iraqand Afghanistan, this is a political non-starter. An expeditionary force would be an undertakingof enormous cost and risk, with no prospect of speedy success and likely to yield at best onlylimited progress. Given public attitudes, it is not going to happen.

　　基本上，我们有4种选择。美国和欧洲政府可以出动地面部队。但考虑到伊拉克和阿富汗战争后普遍的反战情绪，这在政治上是不可能实现的。出动远征军成本高昂、风险巨大，也不可能迅速取得胜利，至多只会取得有限的进展。考虑到民意，这是一种不可能的选择。

　　A second option would be to create a pan-Arab expeditionary force, one with units fromJordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Egypt. Organising and deployingsuch a force would be extremely difficult. It might also trigger intervention from otheroutsiders with a stake in Syria’s future, including Iran. If this were to happen, what is already abad situation could become worse.

　　第二个选择是，由约旦、沙特、阿联酋、或许还有埃及，共同出兵组建一支泛阿拉伯远征军。这样一支军队的组织和部署将异常困难，或许还会引发其他与叙利亚未来利益相关的外部力量的干预，其中包括伊朗。若如此，已经很糟的情况可能变得更糟。

　　The third option is to create an internal Syrian opposition, building on elements that alreadyexist. But this, too, would take a good deal of time, and it would be a tall order for any suchforce to contend successfully with both the Syrian government and Isis.

　　第三个选择是以现有力量为基础，组建一支叙利亚内部的反政府武装。但这需要花费很长时间，而且指望这样一支部队能同时击败叙利亚政府和Isis是不现实的。

　　The fourth option is to turn to the regime of Mr Assad to take the lead in defeating Isis. Thiswould mean accepting for the foreseeable future a regime that has committed war crimes;that is supported by Iran and Russia, with which the west has considerable strategicdifferences; and that is opposed by countries, including Saudi Arabia, with which the US hasmore often than not co-operated.

　　第四个选择是，转向阿萨德政权，让其领导对Isis的打击。这意味着在可预见的未来接受一个犯有战争罪的政权;一个得到与西方存在显著战略分歧的伊朗和俄罗斯支持的政权;一个经常与美国合作的国家(包括沙特)反对的政权。

　　Such a policy change would be costly but not as costly as a scenario in which Isis could useSyrian territory from which to mount attacks on the region and beyond. The Assadgovernment may be evil – but it is a lesser evil than Isis, and a local one. Such anaccommodation would require a great deal of diplomacy if it were to succeed. Understandingswould have to be reached with Damascus, with the mostly secular opposition, much depletedby three years of brutal battles against Isis and the regime; and with outside backers (mainlyIran and Saudi Arabia) about how Syria was to be run, both now and in the future, and whatwould happen in liberated areas.

　　这样的政策转向代价高昂，但假如Isis以叙利亚为根据地，对中东乃至世界其他地区发动攻击，我们将付出更为高昂的代价。阿萨德政府或许邪恶，但没有Isis邪恶，而且只局限于本土。这种安排要想取得成功，需要做大量外交工作。我们必须就叙利亚现在和未来的治理方式、以及如何对待已经被反对派解放的地区，与大马士革方面、基本上世俗的反对派(与Isis和阿萨德政权的三年残酷斗争已使其被削弱)以及双方的外部支持者(主要是伊朗和沙特)达成谅解。

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