双语新闻：中国将主宰世界能源格局

2014-10-08 17:04:35来源：可可英语

　　In the last decade, Chinese oil use has almost doubled. Gas consumption has risen fivefold andelectricity production is up by factor of 9. Total energy demand in China is up 60 per cent in adecade and 300 per cent since 1990. China alone now accounts for 22 per cent of globalenergy every day. And that is just the beginning.

　　上个十年里，中国的石油消耗量几乎翻了一番，天然气消耗量增长了5倍，发电量则增长9倍。在十年的时间里，中国的能源总需求增长了60%。如果从1990年算起，总需求则增长了三倍。目前中国的能源日消耗量占全球的22%，而这还只是开始。

　　The projections for the next 20 years suggest another surge, with oil demand set to doubleagain, gas use to more than double and total energy consumption to rise by 70 per cent evenallowing for an optimistic view of gains in energy efficiency.

　　在针对今后20年的预测中，我们将又一次看到中国需求的激增。中国对石油的需求将再次翻番，天然气消耗量将增加不止一倍。即使对能源使用效率的提升持乐观看法，今后20年中国能源消耗总量也将增长70%。

　　Of course, 20 year projections are not meant to be taken as precise forecasts. Chinese data isfar from perfect and the outlook is based on a number of assumptions about public policydecisions. The detail matters less than the broad direction which the numbers describe. Theoverall story is that Chinese energy consumption will shape every part of the energy business— from oil and gas to nuclear and renewables.

　　当然，时间跨度长达20年的预测不可能十分精确。中国的数据还很不完善，而且以上预测是基于对公共决策的一系列假定得出的。但是详细的数据没有这些数据所反映出的总体趋势重要。这个总趋势就是：从石油和天然气，到核能和可再生能源，中国的能源消费将决定全球能源产业各个领域的格局。

　　Even if you believe, as I do, that China will inevitably experience something close to a normaleconomic cycle with periods of low growth, and even recessions, the direction of changeremains a valid projection of the future. Indeed, there is a case for saying that the figures setout above understate the possible growth in demand. As an excellent article by Robert Wilsonon the website Energy Collective makes clear, most of China’s current energy demand growthis driven by the needs of industry.

　　即使你和我一样，相信中国将不可避免地经历某种类似正常经济周期的现象，会出现经济增长放缓甚至是衰退的时期，以上变化趋势依然是对未来的有效预测。事实上，有理由认为上述数据低估了中国需求的可能增长。正如罗伯特•威尔逊(Robert Wilson)在Energy Collective网站发表的一篇精彩文章所阐明的，中国当下能源需求的增长主要是由工业需求带动的。

　　The Chinese economy is clearly still in a phase of production growth, helped on by the self-defeating decisions of the EU to increase its own energy costs and therefore to encourage themigration of economic activity to lower cost areas. Global industrial production is growing butthe geographic location of that production is changing. Such migration does nothing to reducenet emissions of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.

　　中国经济显然仍处于生产增长的阶段。与此同时，欧盟却决定提高自己的能源成本，这一自讨苦吃的决策促使经济活动转移到成本较低的地区，这对中国生产的增长起到了助推。全球工业生产正在增长，但生产活动的地理位置却在发生改变。这种迁移对降低二氧化碳或其他温室气体的净排放量没有任何作用。

　　But the production growth phase may not continue to be the dominant force in driving energydemand in China. That growth could be supplemented over time by increases in personalconsumption. As Wilson points out, Chinese per capita use of energy for travel and in the homeis still a fraction of the levels in Europe or the US. The shift is beginning, but there is a longway to go.

　　然而，中国处于生产增长阶段这一因素可能不会继续成为推动中国能源需求增长的主导力量。随着时间推移，个人消费的增长可能也将帮助推动中国能源需求增长。正如威尔逊所指出的，相对欧美来说，无论是出外旅游还是在家，中国人均能源消耗量都处于极低水平。这种现象开始发生改变，不过还有很长的路要走。

　　The figures above may also understate China’s share of global energy demand if the Europeaneconomy remains stagnant and the Middle East remains in chaos.

　　此外，如果欧洲经济保持停滞，中东仍然一片混乱，以上数据还有可能低估中国占全球能源需求的比重。

本文关键字: 中国将主宰世界能源格局