新兴经济体的前景暗淡不应夸大世界经济放缓

2014-10-23 19:32:44来源：网络

　　The position of the eurozone is, alas, different. Germany, its most creditworthy country,remains dependent on external demand. It is also largely opposed to the unconventionalmonetary policies that might stimulate that demand. It is even more opposed to potentfiscal policies, either at home or across the eurozone. It hopes that the magic of “structuralreform” will awaken the animal spirits – although its own structural reforms in the pastdecade awakened no such spirits at home.

　　唉，欧元区的处境则不同于美国。欧元区信誉最可靠的国家德国，仍依赖于外部需求。该国也大体上反对实施可能刺激需求的非常规货币政策。德国更反对实施强有力的财政政策，无论在国内还是欧元区。德国希望，“结构性改革”的魔力将唤醒动物精神——尽管过去10年里，其结构性改革在国内没能唤醒此种动物精神。

　　At Berlin’s insistence, the eurozone has turned into a battleground for meagre scraps ofdemand, under the rubric of “competitiveness”. This inability to move beyond theintellectual framework of a small open economy to a continental one is a tragedy.

　　由于柏林方面的坚持，欧元区已变成了以“竞争力”之名争夺本来很疲弱的需求的战场。德国不能突破一个小型开放经济体的观念框架，采纳一种适用于一个大陆经济体的思维模式，这是很可悲的。

　　A renewal of the crisis is possible, given the risk that bond yields – now subdued – will againbegin to climb.

　　鉴于存在债券收益率(目前很低)将开始攀升的风险，危机有可能会卷土重来。

　　It is important not to exaggerate the story of slowdown in the world economy. Yet it is alsovital to avoid a progressive downward slide in growth. To address this risk, it is necessaryto launch well-crafted reforms in both emerging and high-income economies. In the latter, thebiggest challenges are inside the eurozone, where the failures to craft a balanced economicstrategy remain both egregious and very dangerous. As the IMF argues, there is also apowerful argument for more public investment in infrastructure. This could pay for itself and solower rather than raise public debt, in today’s circumstances of weak growth and ultra-low realinterest rates.

　　不夸大世界经济放缓态势很重要，但避免增长持续滑坡也至关重要。为了化解这一风险，新兴和发达经济体都需要启动精心筹划的改革。对后者而言，最大的挑战在于欧元区内部，若不能制定出一项平衡的经济战略，仍是极其糟糕和非常危险的。此外，正如IMF所主张的，增加基础设施公共投资的理由很充分。在增长疲弱和实际利率超低的当今环境下，这么做本身就会带来回报，可以降低而不是提高公共债务水平。

　　It is vital to craft strategies for growth that neither ignore demand constraints nor rely oncredit booms. Can that be done? Yes. Will it be done? I doubt it.

　　制定既不忽视需求约束、又不依赖信贷繁荣的增长战略很重要。这一点有可能做到吗?有。但会实现吗?我很怀疑。

本文关键字: 新兴经济体的前景暗淡