未来中国经济走势恰如雾里看花

2014-10-28 16:53:21来源：网络

　　One figure that Chinese leaders study closely is the number of new jobs. Li Keqiang, China'sprime minister, boasted in a speech at a World Economic Forum meeting last month thatnearly 10 million urban jobs had been created in the first eight months of the year, up slightlyfrom a year ago. As a result, he said, he would not mind if the growth of the gross domesticproduct fell short of this year's official target of 7.5 percent.

　　中国领导人密切关注的一个数据是新增就业岗位。中国总理李克强上个月在世界经济论坛会议上的演讲中骄傲地说，今年前8个月，中国城镇新增就业近1000万人，比上一年有小幅增长。他说，因此，GDP增长低于今年7.5%的官方目标也是可以接受的。

　　"An important goal of maintaining stable growth is to ensure employment, and the floor of theproper range is to ensure relatively adequate employment," he said at the meeting in Tianjin.

　　“稳增长是为了保就业，调控的下限是比较充分的就业，”他在天津的这次会议上说。

　　But even in the jobs figures, broad disparities exist across China. Employment has grown solidlyin the services sector nearly every month in the last five years, according to the purchasingmanagers index compiled by HSBC and Markit. By contrast, manufacturing employment, whichgenerally expanded from 2009 through 2011, has mostly contracted since.

　　但即使是在就业方面，中国各地的数据也存在着较大差异。汇丰银行(HSBC)和Markit编制的采购经理人指数显示，过去五年，服务领域的就业人数几乎每月都会出现稳定增长。相比之下，制造业的就业人数虽然从2009年到2011年总地来说是在扩大，此后的多数时间都在下降。

　　At an employment fair for the medical appliance industry at a government-run career centernear the Lama Temple in Beijing last week, more than a hundred job seekers bantered withrecruiters and weighed their options. A 42-year-old man who gave only his surname, Mr. Lin,was applying for a job at Beijing Niubao Technology, a chemical equipment maker.

　　上周，北京的雍和宫附近一个政府运营的就业指导中心，举行了一场医疗器械行业的招聘会。100多位求职者与用人单位攀谈着，权衡着自己的选择。42岁的林先生正在申请北京纽堡科技有限公司的一个职位，这是一家化学设备生产商。

　　With 20 years of experience in a specialized industry, Mr. Lin expressed confidence abouthis prospects despite the overall outlook in the sector. "Manufacturing isn't doing so great inthe past few years, but I think chemical equipment is still doing relatively O.K.," he said.

　　由于在专业领域拥有20年的经验，虽然行业的整体状况不佳，林先生仍然表示对自己的前途充满信心。“制造业过去几年的表现不是很好，但我认为化工设备相对来说还算可以，”他说。

　　That somewhat positive outlook is a sharp contrast to most traditional industries. "We didn'thave any new recruits this year," Huang Xinqun, 48, a manager at a large ocean-shippingcompany, said last week. "Usually when the manufacturing business is not doing so well, itwould be directly reflected on us," he said.

　　这种比较积极的态度与多数传统行业的情况形成了强烈对比。“我们今年没有任何招聘，”48岁的大型远洋运输公司经理黄新群(音)上周说。“通常当制造业不景气的时候，会直接在我们这里反映出来，”他说。

　　"We're like a signal post on how the economy is doing," Mr. Huang said. "If companies don'thave that many orders and products to transport, then we don't have as much work."

　　“我们就像是经济状况的信号灯，”黄新群说。“如果企业没有那么多订单和需要运输的产品，我们就没有多少工作要做。”

　　Despite the signs of malaise in China's manufacturing and industrial sectors, the government iswary of repeating the significant stimulus measures it undertook after the financial crisis.Leaders are worried that would add to China's ballooning debt, which rose to 250 percent ofgross domestic product at the end of June, from 150 percent five years ago, according toestimates by Standard Chartered Bank.

　　尽管中国制造业及工业领域出现低迷迹象，政府对再次实施金融危机后采取的重大刺激举措持谨慎态度。领导人担心，这会增加中国不断膨胀的债务。据渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)估计，截至6月底，中国债务规模达到GDP的250%，而五年前，这个比率为150%。

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