未来中国经济走势恰如雾里看花

2014-10-28 16:53:21来源：网络

　　Even Mr. Li, the prime minister, has at times expressed doubts over this benchmarkmeasure of output. In 2007, when he was governor of Liaoning Province in northeasternChina, Mr. Li privately acknowledged to a visiting American diplomat that China's G.D.P.figures were unreliable and "for reference only" because they were "man-made," accordingto a confidential diplomatic cable released in 2010 by WikiLeaks.

　　甚至连李克强总理有时都对这种针对产出的基准数据表示怀疑。维基解密(WikiLeaks)2010年公布的机密外交电报显示，2007年，在中国东北辽宁省担任省委书记的李克强私下与一名到访的美国外交官交流时承认，中国的GDP数据并不可靠，“仅供参考”，原因是“人为因素”。

　　Since then, many economists have supplemented China's official figures with their own versionsof a "Li Keqiang Index," alternative measures based on what Mr. Li said were his bellwethersof economic expansion. They include electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and thevalue of loans disbursed.

　　此后，很多经济学家都结合“克强指数”分析中国的官方数据，“克强指数”是基于李克强所说的经济扩张风向标的另类测量指标，由耗电量、铁路货运量和银行贷款发放量三个指标组成。

　　"Certainly these data have the potential to be more reliable but there are complicationsthere, too," said Carsten Holz, a professor of social science at the Hong Kong University ofScience and Technology who has scrutinized China's economic data.

　　香港科技大学(Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)社会科学教授穆嘉(Carsten Holz)表示，“这些数据有可能是更可靠的，但这里也存在问题。”

　　"It's a planned economy thing," Mr. Holz said of the Li Keqiang indexes, likening them totallying apples on a tree but making no attempt to calculate their value.

　　穆嘉称克强指数相当于计算树上苹果数量而不尝试计算它们的价值，“是种计划经济的做法”。

　　"It is a very rudimentary measure, because you don't know how many of these apples arerotten, or measure how big they are," he said. "You are just counting apples."

　　“这是一个极其粗略的指标，因为你不知道有多少苹果已经腐烂，也没有测量苹果有多大，”他说。“你只是在数苹果。”

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