未来中国经济走势恰如雾里看花

2014-10-28 16:53:21来源：网络

　　Instead, policy makers in recent months have used targeted, behind-the-scenes stimulusmeasures, including extending limited amounts of short-term credit to large and medium-size banks. The government also has directed more financing to favored projects, likesupporting agricultural efforts and redeveloping shantytowns.

　　最近几个月，政策制定者采用了具有针对性的幕后刺激举措，包括给予大中型银行有限的短期信贷。政府还将更多资金投入其属意的项目，比如支持农业发展，及重建棚户区。

　　"Things can be done to bolster activity for short periods of time, but I think the fundamentaltheme is a persistent ratcheting down in the measured rate of growth," said George Magnus,a financial consultant and a former chief economist at UBS. "China is in for an extended periodof volatility."

　　“可以做些事情在短期内增强市场活力，但我觉得根本的主题是监测到的增长率持续走低，”金融顾问、前瑞银(UBS)首席经济学家乔治·马格纳斯(George Magnus)说。“中国正在进入一段相当长的波动期。”

　　Other major indicators offer similarly contradictory perspectives on the progress of China'seconomic transition.

　　其他反映中国经济转型进展的重要指标同样存在矛盾。

　　Retail sales are rising at their slowest pace in nearly a decade, seemingly casting doubt on theability of Chinese consumers to drive economic growth. But with an increase of about 12percent in value this year, sales are hardly anemic.

　　零售销售的增长速度降至近10年来的最低点，这似乎引起了对中国消费者拉动经济增长的能力的怀疑。但由于价值上涨了12%，销售不算疲软。

　　What is more, official sales figures fail to capture the explosive growth of online shopping inChina. The statistics bureau only began including the sales of some unnamed, large Internetretailers in its data this year. But Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics,estimates that official retail sales figures only capture about one-sixth of the online purchasesin China.

　　而且官方销售数据没能反映出中国网络购物的迅速发展。统计局今年才开始将一些未指明的大型网络零售商的销售情况计入数据。但凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家马克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)认为，官方零售销售数据只计入了六分之一的网购量。

　　Trade figures, too, are somewhat unclear. Reported Chinese exports rose 15.3 percent lastmonth, their biggest increase since 2013. But that was partly because of a 34 percent increasein exports to Hong Kong.

　　贸易数据也有点含糊不清。公开的中国出口额上月增长15.3%，这是自2013年以来的最大涨幅。但这部分是因为对香港出口增加了34%。

　　The dynamic has prompted some economists to question whether trade figures are again beingdistorted by so-called over-invoicing. The practice was rampant two years ago, when China'sreported exports to Hong Kong surged when companies disguised speculative capital inflowsas the proceeds from trade. Hong Kong's separately reported imports from China are muchlower, which economists say is evidence of the practice.

　　这种情况促使一些经济学家怀疑开高价发票的行为是否再次导致贸易数据失真。两年前，这种做法非常普遍，当时公司将投机资本的涌入掩饰成贸易收益，中国报告称对港出口剧增。而香港方面报告的进口额要低得多。经济学家称，这证明中国存在上述行为。

　　The most problematic economic indicator in China may be gross domestic product itself.Though economists say the data broadly are improving, the numbers do not always seem toadd up. For example, the combined G.D.P. reported by each of China's provinces still regularlyexceeds the official total for the country.

　　在中国，问题最多的经济指标可能是GDP本身。虽然经济学家表示，这一数据总体上在不断完善，但相关数字似乎并不总能自圆其说。例如，将中国各省报告的GDP加在一起得出的数据经常会超过官方发布的中国GDP。

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