欧元区值得为扩张政策冒险

2014-11-06 18:55:51来源：网络

　　The big challenge for the eurozone is not to create institutions, but to promote adjustmentand restore growth. The people of the eurozone cannot be expected to remain patient forever.Indeed, the dangers of continuing economic stagnation are obvious.

　　欧元区面临的巨大难题不在于创造制度，而在于促进调整、恢复增长。我们不能期望欧元区人民能永远保持耐心。事实上，经济停滞持续下去会带来哪些风险是显而易见的。

　　Germany is right that euro states need much long-term reform. But Germany is wrong tobelieve that this might, on its own, generate strong growth. The evidence from its experiencewith reforms is decisive on this point: it will not do so.

　　德国称欧元区国家必须进行大量长期改革，这话没错。但德国认为改革本身就能创造强劲的增长，这是错误的。在这一点上，德国本身在改革方面的经验就能一举证明：改革本身无法做到这一点。

　　Nor does it make sense to rely on ever-greater external surpluses, instead. A policy that maywork for Germany alone (a debatable proposition) cannot work for an economy more thanthree times as big as Germany’s.

　　另外，依赖于越来越大的顺差也是不合理的。能够在德国一个国家身上起作用(是否起了作用还有争议)的政策，无法在一个逾三倍于德国的经济体身上起作用。

　　The eurozone needs to reach a bargain between more reform and extra demand. In doing so,it must recognise that persistent stagnation is a big threat to stability. The eurozone shouldrisk expansion. That is now the safer course.

　　欧元区必须在加大改革和增加需求之间实现平衡。在这个过程中，它必须认识到持续的停滞对稳定是个巨大的威胁。欧元区应该冒险采取扩张政策。眼下扩张是条更安全的道路。

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