双语新闻:谁会点燃中国经济火药桶

2014-04-16 14:01:13来源：可可英语

　　The deepening property glut in China's smaller and medium-sized cities is the kindling that could set ablaze the country's plans for steady 7.5% growth. If that's the case, what's the match?

　　中国二三线城市房地产供给过剩现象愈演愈烈，可能导致中国经济难以实现7.5%的平稳增长。问题是，谁会点燃这个火药桶?

　　Most economists -- even those skeptical of China's growth story--say the country isn't likely to experience a 'Lehman moment.' They don't expect to see one outsized decision that implodes the economy, the way the U.S. government's decision not to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy in 2008 set in motion a quick chain reaction that ended in a deep global recession.

　　多数经济学家都觉得中国不太可能遭遇“雷曼时刻”，即便是那些看空中国经济的人也不否认这点。他们相信中国政府不会像美国那样做出让经济崩溃的决定。2008年，美国政府拒绝挽救濒临破产的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)，其引发的连锁反应把全球经济拖入一场大衰退。

　　Rather, the risk for China is a much deeper slowing of growth than officials anticipate, or can head off. Japan is more the model there. Like China, it too was rapidly growing. It also had an activist government that expected companies to follow its lead. And it had a huge stock of foreign exchange reserves. None of that helped stave off the effects of a real-estate bust that saddled the banks with bad debts, constricted credit and made ordinary people wary of spending.

　　中国面临的风险在于经济放缓的程度超出政府的预期或是超出政府的解救能力。日本是中国的前车之鉴。和中国一样，日本经济也曾经高速增长，也曾有过非常主动的、希望企业听从指挥的政府，也曾拥有巨额的外汇储备，但这一切都没能避免房地产崩盘的连锁效应，结果是银行坏账缠身，银根紧缩，普通人捂紧钱袋子。

　　'The concern is that China will repeat Japan's story in the 1990s,' says JP Morgan economist Haibin Zhu. 'Financial risks continue. Debt keeps getting rolled over. That creates zombie banks and zombie corporations. Eventually that causes the GDP to weaken.'

　　摩根大通(JP Morgan)经济学家朱海斌表示，人们担心中国重蹈上世纪90年代日本的覆辙。朱海斌说，金融风险持续存在，债务不断展期，催生出僵尸银行和僵尸公司，最终会导致国内生产总值(GDP)走软。

　　One obvious candidate for the match is an overall slowdown in growth. In that scenario, consumers reduce spending; developers can't unload property; debts go unpaid; banks stop lending; GDP growth slows even more. And so on.

　　相关报道中国楼市增长放缓市场各方忧心忡忡博客：有关中国楼市供应过剩的问与答博客：营口房地产市场冷过冬天中国经济整体减速可能会成为爆发点。这不难理解，因为一旦发生这种情况，消费者就会减少支出，开发商卖不掉楼盘，无法偿还债务，银行就会停止放贷，导致GDP增速进一步放缓和其他连锁反应。

　　Paradoxically, reform measures meant to solidify China's growth over the long term could also become the match that could touch off a conflagration. A big push for interest rate liberalization or capital account liberalization or property taxes could backfire.

　　矛盾的是，旨在巩固中国长期经济增长的措施同时也可能引发危机。寻求利率市场化、资本账户开放或征收房产税的重大举措可能适得其反。

　　How? Let's take them one by one.

　　为什么?让我们逐个分析。

　　For one, introducing more market forces is likely to push up interest rates, which would make it harder for people and companies to finance their debts and cause property prices to fall further.

　　首先，让更多市场力量发挥作用有可能推高利率，这会让个人和企业更难为其债务融资，并导致房价进一步下滑。

　　Secondly, letting Chinese savers invest overseas could give them a way to diversify their portfolios and make house purchases in China much less attractive. For decades, China has essentially held savers captive and given them few ways to make decent returns other than investing in real estate.

　　第二，允许中国储蓄者在海外投资可能让他们得以将投资组合多元化，而在中国购房的吸引力就会大大减弱。几十年来，中国实质上困住了储蓄者，让他们除了投资房地产之外没有什么途径可以获得可观的回报。

本文关键字: 双语新闻谁会点燃中国经济火药桶