双语新闻：如何为世界经济复苏注入活力

2014-05-08 14:20:54来源：可可英语

　　Why are real interest rates so low? And will they stay this low for long? If they do – as it seems they might – the implications will be profound: good for debtors, bad for creditors and, above all, worrying for the vigour of global demand.

　　为何眼下实际利率这么低?这一局面还将延续很久吗?如果确实如此(目前看来有这样的趋势)，那么影响将十分深远：债务人受益，债权人受损，并且最重要的是，不利于全球需求的活跃。

双语新闻：如何为世界经济复苏注入活力

　　The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook includes a fascinating chapter on global real interest rates. Here are its most significant findings.

　　在国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近公布的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)报告中，有一章关于全球实际利率的分析令人关注。以下就是那一章的最重大发现。

　　First, globalisation has integrated finance. There used to be wide variation in real interest rates between different countries. That is no longer the case, since interest rates everywhere now respond to common influences.

　　首先，全球化促使金融一体化。以前，不同国家的实际利率存在很大差距。现在已不是这样，因为如今各地的利率都对共同的影响因素做出反应。

　　Second, real interest rates – which are adjusted for inflation – have declined a long way since the 1980s. Ten-year rates are close to zero while short-term rates are negative. But the expected real return on equity (estimated from the dividend yield plus the expected growth of dividends) has not fallen by as much (see charts).

　　其次，自上世纪80年代以来，经通胀调整后的实际利率已下降了很多。10年利率接近于零，短期利率则为负值。但预期实际股本回报率(通过股息率和预期股息增长率估算得出)的下降幅度不如实际利率(见图表)。

　　How is one to understand these developments? The real return on financial assets depends on various factors: how much people want to save and invest; what kind of assets savers prefer to hold; and changes in monetary policy. These are not independent of one another. Above all, central banks charged with hitting an inflation target must respond to shifts in demand by changing their monetary policies.

　　应如何理解这些变化呢?金融资产的实际回报取决于多个不同因素：人们想要储蓄多少、投资多少?储蓄者更愿意持有何种资产?以及货币政策发生了何种变化?这几个因素并非相互孤立。最重要的是，各国央行肩负着达到某一通胀目标的使命，它们必须通过改变货币政策来回应需求变化。

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