双语新闻：下轮危机将在2020年到来

2014-08-25 16:42:04来源：中新网

　　It is not only hindsight that is 20/20. While otherbond fund managers are explaining why they failedto see this year’s fall in interest rates, JeffreyGundlach, who did, is talking not about the past butabout the future, and his next piece of foresight isfocused on – believe it or not – 2020.

　　并非只有事后回看才能看清楚。在一些债券基金经理人解释他们为何没能预测到今年利率下跌的同时，预测到这一点的杰弗里•冈拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)谈的却不是过去，而是未来，他的下一项预测主要聚焦于2020年。

　　“A lot of things seem to be pointing to the year 2020as an interesting timeframe,” he says, sipping cool lemonade in the Los Angeles heat. MrGundlach is the founder of Double- Line, which went from a standing start in 2009 to $50bn inassets, becoming the fastest start-up in the fund management industry.

　　“大量情况似乎指向了2020年，那是值得关注的一年，”他在炎热的洛杉矶边喝柠檬汽水边说。冈拉克于2009年创立了DoubleLine，从无到有把资产做到了500亿美元，成为基金管理行业发展最快的初创企业。

　　When a bond market maven says “interesting”, be scared. What is good for fixed income israrely good for the economy as a whole, and Mr Gundlach has a whole list of interesting:

　　当一位债市专家说“值得关注”时，就要警惕了。有利于固定收益业务的环境，很少有利于整体经济，冈拉克列出了一整张值得关注的情况清单：

　　a wall of high-yield debt that companies will need to refinance; soaring federal governmentdeficits as baby-boomers drain social security and healthcare funds; ageing populations inChina and other emerging markets; and the Federal Reserve’s Treasury holdings maturing too.

　　企业将需要为大量高收益债券安排再融资;二战后生育高峰期出生的人消耗社保和医疗资金，导致联邦政府赤字大幅攀升;中国和其它一些新兴市场人口不断老化;美联储(Fed)持有的美国国债也将到期。

　　His conclusion? By 2020 the Fed may well be resurrecting quantitative easing, its palliative fortroubled markets. “It seems like one of the consequences of this zero interest rate policy isyou’ve pushed out the problem of refinancing, of rolling over, but you’ve really compounded themagnitude of it and it seems to be focused around the 2020s.”

　　他的结论是?到2020年，美联储很可能重启量化宽松(QE)，这是其对付市场困境的缓和之计。“看来，这一零利率政策的后果之一，是你延后了再融资、债务滚转的问题，你真的加剧了问题的规模，似乎到2020年代前后将会集中体现。”

　　Mr Gundlach has agreed to squeeze an interview in before a trip to New York state, where heis circling the auction of his home town American football team, the Buffalo Bills, hoping tobecome a minority investor and to ensure they stay in the down-at-heel city on the US side ofNiagara Falls.

　　冈拉克同意在出发之前挤出时间接受采访，他正要前往纽约州参加他家乡的美式足球队水牛城比尔(BuffaloBills)队的拍卖，希望成为该队少数股东，以确保该队继续留在尼亚加拉瀑布美国一侧的这座破落城市。

　　Quantitative easing has been kind to Jeffrey Gundlach the art collector – Mondrian and JasperJohns are among the personal holdings stolen and then returned after an art theft in 2012 –but it may not be so much for Jeffrey Gundlach the putative sports team owner. These areprecisely the luxury assets, along with London and New York real estate and classic Ferraris,that have soared in value as money has been pumped into the system, he says.

　　量化宽松对身为艺术品收藏家的杰弗里•冈拉克还算不薄——2012年，他的个人藏品失窃随后又被找回，其中有蒙德里安(Mondrian)和贾斯帕•琼斯(Jasper Johns)的作品——但对于可能成为体育专业队老板的杰弗里•冈拉克来说可能不太一样。他说，这些绝对是奢侈资产，类似于伦敦和纽约的房地产以及经典法拉利(Ferraris)，随着大量货币被注入金融体系，这些资产的价值都已大涨。

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