经济互惠不足以阻止战争

2014-09-24 17:55:30来源：可可英语

　　There is a mood abroad that says history will recordthat sanctions against Russia marked the start of anepochal retreat from globalisation. I heard a high-ranking German official broach the thought theother day at the German Marshall Fund’s StockholmChina Forum. It was an interesting point, but itmissed a bigger one. The sanctions are moresymptom than cause. The rollback began longbefore Russia’s Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.

　　目前国外有种态度认为，历史将会记录，对俄罗斯的制裁标志着全球化倒退的开始，具有划时代意义。有一天我听到一位德国高官在德国马歇尔基金会(German Marshall Fund)的斯德哥尔摩中国论坛(Stockholm China forum)上谈到这种想法。这是一个有意思的观点，但它错过了一个更加关键的问题。这些制裁只是症状，而非原因。全球化倒退在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)与乌克兰开战之前早就开始了。

　　The case for calling a halt to business as usual with Moscow is self-evident to anyone whoconsiders that international security demands nations do not invade their neighbours. Thevalid criticism of the west is that it has been too slow to react. At every step, the Russianpresident has ruthlessly exploited US hesitation and European divisions.

　　对于那些认为国际安全要求任何国家都不能侵犯邻国的人来说，停止与莫斯科开展经贸往来的理由是显而易见的。对西方的批评有一条是成立的，那就是它的反应过于迟缓。普京在每一步都无情地利用了美国的犹豫和欧洲的分歧。

　　He will do so until Nato restores deterrence to the core of European security. Mr Putin’sirredentism demands tough diplomacy stiffened by hard power. He will stop when heunderstands that aggression will invite unacceptable retaliation. To make deterrencecredible, the alliance must put boots on the ground on its eastern flank. The Baltics havereplaced Berlin as the litmus test of western resolve.

　　普京将会继续这么做，直至北约(Nato)将威慑重新置于欧洲安全的核心。对付普京的民族统一主义，需要硬实力支持的强硬外交。只有当他明白侵略将招致不可接受的报复的时候，他才会收手。为了让威慑可信，北约必须在其东部前线部署地面部队。波罗的海已经取代柏林，成为西方决心的试金石。

本文关键字: 经济互惠不足以阻止战争