全球石油需求“明显”下滑油价动荡的时代即将来临

2014-09-25 14:05:39来源：可可英语

　　The oil price may be falling and global demand is“remarkably” subdued, according to a report lastweek from the International Energy Agency. But thishas not stopped the former chief executive of BP,Tony Hayward, from issuing an uncomfortablewarning.

　　国际能源署(International Energy Agency)上周发布的一份报告显示，全球石油需求“明显”下滑，油价也在下跌。但这并不能阻止英国石油(BP)前首席执行官唐熙华(TonyHayward)发出了令人不安的警告。

　　In an interview with the FT, Mr Hayward, who these days runs an oil company in IraqiKurdistan, worries that international sanctions against Russia’s oil sector are storing up troublefor the west. They risk cutting investment and damaging supplies from the world’s third-largestproducer. The threat may have been masked by increases in American liquid petroleumproduction, which has surged above its 1970 zenith. But the US may not go on rising for ever,Mr Hayward notes. And when that happens, where will the world find its next new source ofsupply?

　　唐熙华目前管理着伊拉克库尔德斯坦的一家石油公司。在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，他表示，国际社会针对俄罗斯石油行业的制裁正在给西方埋下越来越多隐患。这些制裁可能会削减这个全球第三大产油国的得到的投资并破坏其供应。这一威胁可能已被美国液态石油产量增加所掩盖——美国的液态石油产量已飙升至超过上世纪70年代峰值的水平，但唐熙华指出，美国的产量可能不会永远增长下去。到那时，全球将在哪里找到下一个新的供应源?

　　It is a good question. Producing oil has become harder both for reasons of geology and politics;a crude price stuck around $100 per barrel is evidence enough. It may become harder still.Talk about an “age of abundance” is justified only from a North American perspective.Elsewhere it is a different story: one of decline in fading regions such as the North Sea, andpolitical and security threats in countries from Iraq to Iran and Venezuela. Since 2005, all ofthe increase in the world’s crude production has come from the US.

　　这是一个好问题。由于地质和政治原因，石油生产变得更加困难;原油价格徘徊在每桶100美元左右就足以说明问题。未来难度可能会变得更大。有一种我们身处“富足时代”的说法，但其合理性只是从北美的角度而言。在其他地区则是另一番情景：北海等地区产量日益衰落，从伊拉克到伊朗和委内瑞拉等多国面临政治和安全威胁。自2005年以来，全球原油产量的增量都来自美国。

本文关键字: 油价动荡的时代即将来临