可再生能源革命挑战行业旧秩序

2014-11-06 18:41:52来源：网络

　　Electric utility executives all over the world are watching nervously as technologies they oncedismissed as irrelevant begin to threaten their long-established business plans. Fights areerupting across the United States over the future rules for renewable power. Many poorcountries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people,are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset.

　　全球的电力公司高管们，眼睁睁看着一度被自己视作无关紧要的技术开始威胁到自家公司长期以来的经营方略，无不如坐针毡。美国各地都爆发了有关可再生能源电力未来规则的讨论。许多曾打算通过建造燃煤发电厂来为国民供电的穷国，眼下正探讨是否可以跳过化石燃料时代，从一开始就构建清洁能源网络。

　　A reckoning is at hand, and nowhere is that clearer than in Germany. Even as the country setsrecords nearly every month for renewable power production, the changes have devastated itsutility companies, whose profits from power generation have collapsed.

　　清算的时刻到了，而德国的情况可能比任何地方都要明了。几乎每个月，德国都会刷新可再生能源电力的生产纪录，但与此同时，这些变化让该国的公用事业公司损失惨重，来自电力生产的利润一路狂跌。

　　A similar pattern may well play out in other countries that are pursuing ambitious plans forrenewable energy. Some American states, impatient with legislative gridlock in Washington,have set aggressive goals of their own, aiming for 20 or 30 percent renewable energy as soonas 2020.

　　类似的情况很可能出现在其他那些正推行宏大的可再生能源规划的国家。美国的一些州对华盛顿的立法僵局失去了耐心，已经自行设立了雄心勃勃的目标：在2020年之前就要让可再生能源对电力供应的贡献率达到20%至30%。

　　The word the Germans use for their plan is starting to make its way into conversationselsewhere: energiewende, the energy transition. Worldwide, Germany is being held up as amodel, cited by environmental activists as proof that a transformation of the global energysystem is possible.

　　德国人把自己的方案叫“能源转型”(energiewende)，这个词已经开始被其他国家和地区的一些人挂在嘴边。德国被全世界奉为楷模，环保人士常常以它为例来证明，全球能源系统的转型是可以实现的。

　　But it is becoming clear that the transformation, if plausible, will be wrenching. Someexperts say the electricity business is entering a period of turmoil beyond anything in its 130-year history, a disruption potentially as great as those that have remade the airlines, themusic industry and the telephone business.

　　但人们越来越清楚地看到，这种转型即便可行，也会是一个痛苦的过程。一些业内人士称，电力产业进入了它130年的历史上最激烈的动荡期，它正迎来一场裂变，其影响可能堪比航空、音乐以及电话产业曾经发生的那些重塑产业格局的大裂变。

　　Taking full advantage of the possibilities may require scrapping the old rules of electricitymarkets and starting over, industry observers say — perhaps with techniques like payingutilities extra to keep conventional power plants on standby for times when the wind is notblowing and the sun is not shining. The German government has acknowledged the need fornew rules, though it has yet to figure out what they should be. A handful of American statesare beginning a similar reconsideration of how their electric systems operate.

　　行业观察人士表示，要充分利用这种可能性，也许就得抛开电力市场的旧有规则，重新规划——大概还得作一些安排，比如向公用事业公司额外付费，让其保留传统发电厂备用，以应付风力和日照不足的情况。德国政府已经认识到了启用新规则的必要性，尽管它还没弄清新规则该是什么样。美国的少数几个州同样在重新思考本州电力系统的运行方式。

　　“It’s pretty amazing what’s happening, really,” said Gerard Reid, an Irish financier working inBerlin on German energy projects. “The Germans call it a transformation, but to me it’s arevolution.”

　　“正在发生的一切真的十分惊人，”在柏林做德国能源项目的爱尔兰投资人杰拉德·里德(Gerard Reid)说，“德国人称之为转型，但在我看来这是一场革命。”

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