双语新闻：中国艰难的减排之路胜利还在远方

2014-05-08 14:42:16来源：可可英语

　　China has said it will cut the amount of carbon it produces as a proportion of GDP by at least 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2020. This is a far cry from the absolute cut in emissions offered by the EU, the US and other industrialised economies.

　　中国表示，到2020年，其碳排放与GDP的比例将至少比2005年水平降低40%。比起欧盟、美国和其他工业化国家提出的排放量绝对值削减，中国的目标相去甚远。

　　China’s position is understandable, says Prof Detlef van Vuuren of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, who was also an author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

　　但政府间气候变化问题小组(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)最新报告的作者之一、荷兰环境评估局(PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)的德特勒夫•范维伦(Detlef van Vuuren)表示，中国的立场可以理解。

　　China’s economy is growing much faster than that of European countries, “so for us it is much easier to reduce emissions in an absolute sense”, he says.

　　他表示，中国经济增长远远快于欧洲国家，“所以对我们来说，削减排放量绝对值要容易得多。”

　　That raises the question of when China’s emissions are likely to peak, either naturally or with policy effort.

　　这就带出了一个问题：中国的排放量何时将见顶(自然或是受政策努力的影响)?

　　The Dutch agency recently took part in a sweeping study that tried to answer this question using a range of climate-economy models. Most suggested that without more stringent policies, emissions would keep rising until at least 2050.

　　荷兰环境评估局近期参与了一项大范围的研究，该项研究借助一系列气候-经济模型来尝试回答这个问题。大多数模型似乎显示，若没有更严厉的政策，排放增长将至少延续至2050年。

　　They showed the most cost-effective way of stopping global temperatures rising more than 2C from pre-industrial times – a threshold some scientists say should not be breached – is for China’s emissions to peak shortly after 2020. Temperatures have already risen by nearly 1C.

　　这些模型表明，若要阻止全球气温升高到比工业化之前时期高出2摄氏度(一些科学家称，不应突破这一门槛)的水平，成本效益最好的办法是让中国的排放量在2020年后不久见顶。全球气温已经比工业化之前升高了近1摄氏度。

　　Action could be delayed beyond 2030 but this would be more costly because it would require deeper emissions cuts later. Could China stop its emissions rising as early as 2020?

　　行动可以推迟到2030年以后，但代价将更为高昂，因为那将要求对排放量进行更大幅度的削减。中国能否在2020年就阻止排放量继续上升?

　　The influential Beijing think-tanks and institutes that advise ministries such as the National Development and Reform Commission, where Mr Xie is vice-chairman, have been working on an assessment of a likely peaking period.

　　北京一些具有影响力、为国家发改委(解振华担任副主任)等政府部门提供建议的智库和研究机构一直在评估排放量可能在何时见顶。

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