双语新闻：中国艰难的减排之路胜利还在远方

2014-05-08 14:42:16来源：可可英语

　　The findings may be ready in time for the September summit but there is still plenty of disagreement about a realistic peaking date, according to analysts working on the topic.

　　到9月份联合国峰会时，研究结果可能已经出炉。但研究这一课题的分析人士表示，各方对于现实的见顶日期还存在不少分歧。

　　“Frankly, we have a very broad range of projections,” says Zou Ji of China’s National Centre for Climate Change Strategy. “Xie and Su Wei [Mr Xie’s negotiating colleague in the climate talks] ask us again and again, which figure is more reliable and more reasonable?”

　　“坦白地说，我们预测的结果区间很大，”中国国家气候变化战略中心的邹骥表示，“解振华和苏伟(与解振华一同出席气候谈判的代表)三番五次问我们，哪一份数据更可靠、更合理?”

　　The trouble is there are enormous problems to consider, he says. “People say: ‘Oh, coal is so dirty, let’s shut down the coal mines.’ But on the other hand we also see a very rapid increase in demand for electricity and it seems we cannot stop that.

　　他表示，困难在于要考虑许多严峻的问题。“人们说：‘哎，煤炭太脏了，把煤矿关掉吧。’但另一方面，我们发现用电需求迅速增加，看上去也无法阻止这一势头。

　　“Furthermore, we also see over 10m employees in coal factories. If we shut down some of the coal mines, how will those unemployed workers be addressed with a very weak social security system?”

　　“此外，煤企雇佣着1000多万人。如果我们关闭一些煤矿，考虑到社会保障体系十分薄弱，失业工人应当如何安排?”

　　Small wonder that Fuqiang Yang, senior climate and energy adviser at the Natural Resources Defense Council, a US group that operates in China, says the emissions-peaking debate has been fraught. “The first study five years ago said China’s emissions peak will be in 2035. Many Chinese government officials said ‘Why did you say that? It’s too soon’ ”

　　难怪在中国开展研究项目的美国自然资源保护委员会(Natural Resources Defense Council)的气候与能源高级顾问杨富强表示，围绕碳排放何时见顶的辩论一直问题重重。“五年前的第一项研究称，中国的排放量峰值将在2035年到来。许多中国政府官员表示‘为什么这么说?太早了。’”

　　He Jiankun of China’s Tsinghua University is one of the most senior advisers on climate change and has spent months trying to balance the myriad unknown variables that go into calculating China’s likely emissions peak.

　　中国清华大学的何建坤是气候变化问题上最为资深的顾问之一，最近他花费数月时间权衡大量未知变量，计算中国排放量可能见顶的日期。

　　These include how much its growing economy will slow down in the coming decades; what the energy mix will be and how much more efficient the industrial and transport structure will become.

　　这些变量包括：中国增长中的经济在未来几十年将以多大的幅度放缓;未来的能源结构将是什么样的;以及工业和交通的效率将提高多少。

　　It is a tough calculation in a planned economy that rarely performs according to the plan.

　　对于中国这样很少按计划运行的计划经济，估算的难度很大。

　　He figures the peak will be around 2030, based on the idea that economic growth will gradually slow to about 5 per cent a year, that more of China’s energy will be generated from low-carbon sources and that it will be able to reduce the amount of pollutants generated per unit of GDP by 3.5 per cent every year for the next 16 years.

　　他估计，峰值将在2030年前后出现，依据是中国经济年增速将逐渐降至5%左右，中国更多能源产出将来自低碳来源，以及中国能够在未来16年将单位GDP产生的污染物每年降低3.5%。

　　Any number of Prof He’s calculations are open to disagreement. Just discussing whether China’s one-party system can sustain an economic slowdown to less than 5 per cent is difficult for Chinese researchers. But the weight of probability points to a deceleration of the economy from today’s 7.4 per cent growth.

　　何建坤教授估算的任何一个数字都可能引发意见分歧。中国的一党制体系能否承受经济放缓至5%以下?光是讨论这个问题，就让中国的研究人员头疼。但概率加权显示，经济增速将从目前的7.4%逐渐减速。

　　There is a risk that if growth slows too fast it will trigger another attempt by Beijing to juice the economy with a shot of loose credit, as it did in 2008 after the global financial crisis and, to a lesser extent, last summer.

　　目前存在的一个风险是：如果增长放缓过于剧烈，中国政府将试图为经济注入又一轮宽松信贷，它在2008年全球金融危机后曾这样做过，去年夏天又再次祭出此招，尽管规模较小。

　　Such stimulus efforts tend to flood the state-owned, heavy industrial sector with money, unbalancing any natural transition in the economy to a more mature, service-led structure.

　　此类刺激往往意味着向国有的重工业注入大量资金，从而扰乱中国经济自然地向更成熟、服务业主导的结构转型。

　　A bigger problem is the assumption that China can continue to wring the same amount of energy efficiency and improvements in emissions year after year, long after the low-hanging fruit has been plucked.

　　更大的一个问题是，估算基于这样一种假设：在“好摘的果子”摘完之后，中国还能继续年复一年地取得等量的能效和减排改善。

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