未来中国经济走势恰如雾里看花

2014-10-28 16:53:21来源：网络

　　HONG KONG — Markets around the world have beenjolted by fears that slowing growth and deflationarypressures in Europe, Japan and other majoreconomies could derail the United States. But thehealth of China, for decades an engine of growth,has emerged as one of the most significant wildcards in the global economy.

　　香港——由于担心欧洲、日本及其他主要经济体的增长放缓和通缩压力可能危及美国，全球市场正陷入恐慌。而作为几十年来的增长引擎，中国的经济状况已成为全球经济的一个最大变数。

　　It is hard to be certain just exactly how the Chinese economy is faring, given mixed signals inthe data.

　　很难确定中国经济到底表现如何，原因是数据中呈现的复杂信息。

　　Chinese inflation is at its weakest levels in nearly five years. Commodity prices are plunging.New home sales are declining. Foreign investment is contracting.

　　中国的通胀处于近五年来的最低水平。大宗商品价格大幅下跌。新房销售不断下滑。外国投资正不断缩水。

　　The overall economy, though, continues to chug along at a steady, albeit more modest,pace. China's gross domestic product increased by 7.3 percent in the third quarter, comparedwith 7.5 percent in the previous quarter. While that was the lowest quarterly growth since thedepths of the financial crisis in 2009, the rate remains the envy of major economies. Theeconomy also continues adding jobs at a good clip, and the currency is one of very few that arestill rising against the dollar.

　　不过，整个经济仍然平稳增长，虽然速度更加缓慢。中国的GDP三季度增长了7.3%，相比之下，前一季度的增幅为7.5%。尽管这是2009年金融危机最严重时期以来的最低季度增幅，这个速度仍然让主要经济体艳羡不已。中国的新增就业岗位仍在大幅增加，而人民币则是兑美元汇率仍在上升的少数币种之一。

　　"The question or problem we are all facing at the moment is, ‘What is right picture for theeconomy as a whole?' " said Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank ofScotland in Hong Kong. "It's complicated by negative forces that show up very strongly inindustry but not in the service sector."

　　“我们所有人目前面临的疑问或问题是，‘中国整体经济状况的真实图景是什么?'”苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bankof Scotland)驻香港的首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说。“令整体状况更加复杂的消极力量来自于实业，而不是服务业。”

　　Making sense of China's economic health is challenging because the slowdown is partly bydesign.

　　看懂中国经济状况极具挑战性，因为经济放缓部分源自刻意安排。

　　The Communist leadership has pledged to reduce China's dependence on credit-fueled growthand investment, to instead emphasize domestic consumption. It is a risky proposal, andleaders have signaled a willingness to live with slower growth, provided employment holds upand systemic risks are contained.

　　中共领导层已经承诺减少中国对信贷推动的增长以及投资的依赖，要转而重视国内消费。这是一个存在风险的计划，但领导人已经表示，只要就业市场坚挺、系统风险可控，愿意接受增长放缓的事实。

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