(三)中美互为重要的投资伙伴
3. China and the US are important investment partners.
美国是中国重要外资来源地。根据中国商务部统计,截至2017年,美国累计在华设立外商投资企业约6.8万家,实际投资超过830亿美元。中国企业对美国直接投资快速增长,美国成为中国重要的投资目的地。随着中国对外投资的发展,中国企业对美国直接投资从2003年的0.65亿美元增长至2016年的169.8亿美元。根据中国商务部统计,截至2017年,中国对美直接投资存量约670亿美元。与此同时,中国还对美国进行了大量金融投资。根据美国财政部统计,截至2018年5月底,中国持有美国国债1.18万亿美元。
The US is a major source of foreign investment for China. According to MOFCOM, by the end of 2017, there were approximately 68,000 US-funded enterprises in China with over US$83 billion in actualized investment. With a rapid increase in direct investment by Chinese enterprises in the US, the latter has become an important destination for Chinese investment. As China’s outbound investment grew, Chinese enterprises’ direct investment in the US rose from US$65 million in 2003 to US$16.98 billion in 2016. According to MOFCOM figures, by the end 2017, the stock of Chinese direct investment in the US amounted to approximately US$67 billion. Meanwhile, China has also made a significant financial investment in the US. According to the US Treasury Department, China held US$1.18 trillion of US treasury bills by the end of May 2018.
(四)中美双方均从经贸合作中明显获益
4. China and the US have both benefited markedly from trade and economic cooperation.
中美双方从经贸合作中获得巨大的经济利益,实现了互利共赢。
China and the US have both reaped enormous benefits and created win-win results from trade and economic cooperation.
中美经贸合作促进了中国经济发展和民生改善。在经济全球化背景下,中国与美国等国加强贸易和投资合作,相互开放市场,有利于中国企业融入全球产业链价值链,为中国经济增长带来了可观的外部市场。经过改革开放以来40年的发展,2017年中国货物贸易进出口总额4.1万亿美元,居世界首位;服务贸易进出口总额6956.8亿美元,居世界第二位;吸引外商投资1363亿美元,居世界第二位。美国在华企业在技术创新、市场管理、制度创新等方面对中国企业起到了示范作用,促进了市场竞争,提升了行业效率,带动了中国企业提高技术和管理水平。中国从美国进口大量机电产品和农产品,弥补了自身供给能力的不足,满足了各领域需求特别是高端需求,丰富了消费者选择。
China-US trade and economic cooperation has promoted economic development in China and improved economic wellbeing. Against the backdrop of economic globalization, strengthening trade and investment cooperation with other countries, including the US, and opening up markets to each other has helped Chinese enterprises integrate into the global industrial chain and value chain, and opened up a huge external market for Chinese economic growth. Thanks to economic development over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, in 2017, China became the world’s largest trader in goods, with US$4.1 trillion of total merchandise imports and exports. It became the second largest trader in services with US$695.68 billion worth of total services imports and exports. And it became the second largest recipient of FDI, with US$136 billion of inward foreign investment. American firms have played an exemplary role in China for their Chinese peers in terms of technological innovation, marketing management, and institutional innovation. They have promoted market competition, improved industry efficiency, and motivated Chinese firms to improve their technology and management. In importing a large number of mechanical and electrical products and agricultural products from the US, China has managed to make up for its own supply deficiencies, and satisfy the demand – especially high-end demand – in various sectors by offering consumers a diversity of choice.
与此同时,美国获得了跨境投资、进入中国市场等大量商业机会,对美国经济增长、消费者福利、经济结构升级都发挥了重要作用。
At the same time, the US has gained access to a wide range of business opportunities such as cross-border investment and entry into the China market, which have played a big part in driving economic growth, improving consumer welfare, and upgrading the economic structure in the US.
经贸合作促进了美国经济增长,降低了美国通胀水平。据美中贸易全国委员会和牛津研究院联合研究估算,2015年美国自华进口提振了美国国内生产总值0.8个百分点;美国对华出口和中美双向投资为美国国内生产总值贡献了2160亿美元,提升美国经济增长率1.2个百分点;来自中国物美价廉的商品降低了美国消费者物价水平,如2015年降低其消费物价水平1-1.5个百分点。低通货膨胀环境为美国实施扩张性宏观经济政策提供了较大空间。
Trade and economic cooperation has supported US economic growth and lowered US inflation. A joint estimate by the US-China Business Council and Oxford Economics indicated that in 2015 imports from China drove up the US gross domestic product by 0.8 percentage points. Exports to China and two-way investment contributed US$216 billion to America’s GDP, pushing US economic growth rate up by 1.2 percentage points. Value-for-money products from China drove down prices for American consumers, and in 2015, for example, reduced the consumer price index by 1 to 1.5 percentage points. A low inflation environment has created much room for expansionary macroeconomic policies in the US.
为美国创造了大量就业机会。据美中贸易全国委员会估算,2015年美国对华出口和中美双向投资支持了美国国内260万个就业岗位。其中,中国对美投资遍布美国46个州,为美国国内创造就业岗位超过14万个,而且大部分为制造业岗位。
Trade and economic cooperation has created a large number of jobs in the US. According to a US-China Business Council estimate, in 2015, US exports to China and US-China two-way investment supported 2.6 million jobs in America. Specifically, Chinese investment covered 46 states of the US, generating for the US more than 140,000 jobs, most of which are in manufacturing.
给美国消费者带来了实实在在的好处。双边贸易丰富了消费者选择,降低了生活成本,提高了美国民众特别是中低收入群体实际购买力。美中贸易全国委员会研究显示,2015年,中美贸易平均每年为每个美国家庭节省850美元成本,相当于美国家庭收入的1.5%。
Trade and economic cooperation has brought real benefits to American consumers. Bilateral trade provides consumers with a broad range of choices, lowers their living costs, and raises the real purchasing power of the American people, especially the low- and middle-income cohort. According to the US-China Business Council, in 2015, trade with China saved every American family US$850 of expenditure each year, which is equivalent to 1.5% of the average household income in the US.
为美国企业创造了大量商机和利润。中国是一个巨大而快速增长的市场,中美经贸合作为美国企业提供了大量商业机会。从贸易来看,根据美中贸易全国委员会发布的《2017年度美各州对华出口报告》,2017年中国是美国46个州的前五大货物出口市场之一,2016年中国是美国所有50个州的前五大服务出口市场之一;2017年每个美国农民平均向中国出口农产品1万美元以上。从投资来看,根据中国商务部统计,2015年美国企业实现在华销售收入约5170亿美元,利润超过360亿美元;2016年销售收入约6068亿美元,利润超过390亿美元。美国三大汽车制造商2015年在华合资企业利润合计达74.4亿美元。2017年美系乘用车在华销量达到304万辆,占中国乘用车销售总量的12.3%,仅通用汽车公司在华就有10家合资企业,在华产量占到其全球产量的40%。美国高通公司在华芯片销售和专利许可费收入占其总营收的57%,英特尔公司在中国(包括香港地区)营收占其总营收的23.6%。2017年财年,苹果公司大中华地区营收占其总营收的19.5%。截至2017年1月,13家美国银行在华设有分支机构,10家美资保险机构在华设有保险公司。高盛、运通、美国银行、美国大都会人寿等美国金融机构作为中国金融机构的战略投资者,均取得了不菲的投资收益。根据中国证监会统计,中国境内公司到境外首发上市和再融资,总筹资额的70%由美资投资银行担任主承销商或联席主承销商。美国律师事务所共设立驻华代表处约120家。
Trade and economic cooperation has created a large number of business opportunities and significant profits for American businesses. With China being a huge and rapidly growing market, trade and economic cooperation between China and the US has created huge business opportunities for American businesses. From the trade perspective, the US-China Business Council 2017 State Export Report found that in 2017, China was one of the top five export markets of goods for 46 states. In 2016 China was one of the top five export markets of services for all 50 states. On average every US farmer exported over US$10,000 of agricultural products to China in 2017. From the investment perspective, according to MOFCOM, in 2015 US firms in China realized approximately US$517 billion of sales revenue and over US$36 billion of profits; in 2016, their sales reached about US$606.8 billion and profits exceeded US$39 billion. For the top three US automakers, their joint ventures in China made a total profit of US$7.44 billion in 2017. In the same year, a total of 3.04 million American passenger vehicles were sold in China, accounting for 12.3% of all passenger vehicles sold in China. General Motors alone has ten joint ventures in China. Its output in China accounted for 40% of its global output. Qualcomm’s income from chip sales and patent royalties in China accounted for 57% of its total revenue. Intel’s revenues in China (including the Hong Kong region) accounted for 23.6% of its total revenue. In the FY 2017, revenues from Greater China accounted for 19.5% of the Apple Inc. total. By January 2017, 13 American banks had subsidiaries or branches and ten American insurance companies had insurance firms in China. Goldman Sachs, American Express, Bank of America, Metlife and other American financial institutions have reaped handsome returns from their strategic investment in Chinese financial institutions. According to China Securities Regulatory Commission, American investment banks were lead underwriters or co-lead underwriters for 70% of the funds raised by Chinese companies in their overseas IPOs and refinancing. US law firms have set up about 120 offices in China.
促进了美国产业升级。在与中国经贸合作中,美国跨国公司通过整合两国要素优势提升了其国际竞争力。苹果公司在美国设计研发手机,在中国组装生产,在全球市场销售。根据高盛公司2018年的研究报告,如苹果公司将生产与组装全部移到美国,其生产成本将提高37%。从技术合作领域看,美国企业在中国销售和投资,使这些企业能够享受中国在云计算和人工智能等方面的应用成果,使其产品更好适应不断变化的全球市场。中国承接了美国企业的生产环节,使得美国能够将更多资金等要素资源投入创新和管理环节,集中力量发展高端制造业和现代服务业,带动产业向更高附加值、高技术含量领域升级,降低了美国国内能源资源消耗和环境保护的压力,提升了国家整体竞争力。
Trade and economic cooperation has promoted industrial upgrading. In their trade and economic cooperation with China, US multinational companies have sharpened their international competitiveness by combining competitive factors of production in the two countries. For example, iPhones are designed in the US, manufactured and assembled in China, and sold in the world. According to a Goldman Sachs report in 2018, should Apple Inc. relocate all its production and assembly to the US, its product cost would increase by 37%. In technological cooperation, US companies which have sales and investment in China enjoy the benefits of cloud computing and artificial intelligence applied in China, so that American products can better adapt to the changing global market. By manufacturing for US companies, China has enabled the US to invest more money and resources in innovation and management, focus on high-end manufacturing and modern services, and upgrade its industry with more added-value and high technology. This has also helped the US in conserving energy and resources and mitigating pressure in environmental protection at home, making the US more competitive in the world.
总体来看,中美经贸合作是一种双赢关系,绝非零和博弈,美国企业和国民从中得到了实实在在的好处,美国一部分人宣称的“美国吃亏论”是站不住脚的。
In general, China-US trade and economic cooperation is a win-win relationship and by no means a zero-sum game, bringing concrete benefits to US companies and people. Some Americans claim that the United States is “losing” in this relationship, a claim which does not stand up to scrutiny.
二、中美经贸关系的事实
II. Clarifications of the facts about China-US trade and economic cooperation
中美经贸交往规模庞大、内涵丰富、覆盖面广、涉及主体多元,产生一些矛盾分歧在所难免。两国应以全局综合的视角看待,从维护两国战略利益和国际秩序大局出发,以求同存异的态度妥善处理分歧,务实化解矛盾。但是,现任美国政府通过发布《对华301调查报告》等方式,对中国作出“经济侵略”、“不公平贸易”、“盗窃知识产权”、“国家资本主义”等一系列污名化指责,严重歪曲了中美经贸关系的事实,无视中国改革开放的巨大成绩和中国人民为此付出的心血汗水,这既是对中国政府和中国人民的不尊重,也是对美国人民真实利益的不尊重,只会导致分歧加大、摩擦升级,最终损害双方根本利益。
Economic cooperation and trade between the two countries is so huge, substantive and broad-based, with so many players, that it is inevitable for some differences and friction to emerge. The two countries need to take a comprehensive perspective, keep in mind their strategic interests and the international order, properly handle their differences by seeking common ground while shelving differences, and take practical steps to resolve their tensions. However, in its Section 301 report and other ways, the current US administration stigmatizes China by accusing it of “economic aggression”, “unfair trade”, “IPR theft” and “national capitalism”. This is a gross distortion of the facts in China-US trade and economic cooperation. It turns a blind eye to the huge progress in China’s reform and opening-up as well as the dedication and hard work of the Chinese people. This is disrespectful to the Chinese government and people as well as incompatible with the real interests of the American people. It will only aggravate differences and tensions, which in the end will damage the fundamental interests of both countries.
(一)不应仅看货物贸易差额片面评判中美经贸关系得失
1. The gap in trade in goods alone is not a good indicator of China-US trade and economic cooperation.
客观认识和评价中美双边贸易是否平衡,需要全面深入考察,不能只看货物贸易差额。中国并不刻意追求贸易顺差,事实上,中国经常账户顺差与国内生产总值之比已由2007年的11.3%降至2017年的1.3%。中美货物贸易不平衡现象更多是美国经济结构和现有比较优势格局下市场自主选择的自然结果,解决这一问题需要双方共同努力进行结构性调整。美国无视影响中美经贸关系的多方面因素,片面强调两国货物贸易不平衡现象,将责任归咎于中国,是不公平、不合理的。
An objective understanding and assessment of China-US trade balance calls for comprehensive and in-depth study, rather than a glance at the trade deficit in goods. It is not China’s intention to have a trade surplus. Rather, the ratio of China’s current account surplus to its GDP has declined from 11.3% in 2007 to 1.3% in 2017. The imbalance of trade in goods between China and the US is more of a natural outcome of voluntary choices the US has made in economic structure and market in the light of its comparative strengths. To resolve this issue, both sides need to make concerted efforts in restructuring. The United States turns a blind eye to various factors in its trade and economic cooperation with China, singles out the imbalance of trade in goods, and blames China for the imbalance, which is unfair and unreasonable.
中美经贸往来获益大致平衡。中美双边货物贸易不平衡现象有一个历史演变过程。在上世纪80年代至90年代初期美国一直处于顺差地位,1992年之后中国转为顺差并持续增加。
China-US trade and economic cooperation delivers balanced benefits in general. The imbalance of trade in goods between the two countries has evolved over time. From the 1980s to early 1990s, the US ran a surplus in its trade with China; in 1992 China began to run surplus, which has continued to grow.
在经济全球化深入发展、国际化生产普遍存在的今天,双边经贸关系内涵早已超出货物贸易,服务贸易和本国企业在对方国家分支机构的本地销售额(即双向投资中的本地销售)也应考虑进来。综合考虑货物贸易、服务贸易和本国企业在对方国家分支机构的本地销售额三项因素,中美双方经贸往来获益大致平衡,而且美方净收益占优(图4)。根据中国商务部统计,2017年美国对华服务贸易顺差为541亿美元,美国在服务贸易方面占有显著优势。根据美国商务部经济分析局数据,2015年美资企业在华销售额高达4814亿美元,远高于中资企业在美256亿美元的销售额,美国占有4558亿美元的优势,美国企业跨国经营优势更为突出。2018年6月德意志银行发布的研究报告《估算美国和主要贸易伙伴之间的经济利益》认为,从商业利益角度分析,考虑到跨国公司的全球经营对双边经贸交往的影响,美国实际上在中美双边贸易交往过程中获得了比中国更多的商业净利益。根据其计算,扣除各自出口中其他国家企业子公司的贡献等,2017年美国享有203亿美元的净利益。
In today’s world of greater globalization and widespread international production, bilateral trade and economic cooperation already extend beyond trade in goods. Trade in services and sales of local subsidiaries in the host country (local sales in two-way investment) should also be included. If we give full consideration to these three factors – trade in goods, trade in services and sales of local subsidiaries in the host country, trade and economic cooperation delivers balanced benefits in general for China and the United States, with the latter reaping more net benefits. (See Chart 4) According to MOFCOM, the US ran a surplus of US$54.1 billion in trade in services in 2017, indicating its remarkable competitive strength in this area. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the sales of US companies in China reached US$481.4 billion in 2015, way higher than the US$25.6 billion sales of Chinese companies in the US, an advantage of US$455.8 billion. US companies enjoy an even bigger advantage in cross-border operations. In June 2018, Deutsche Bank released a report on calculating economic interests between the US and its major trading partners, arguing that, from the perspective of commercial interests, the US has in fact gained more commercial net benefits than China from their two-way trade, given the impact of global operations by multinational corporations on bilateral trade and economic cooperation. According to Deutsche Bank, after contributions from subsidiaries of third countries are taken away, the US enjoyed net benefits of US$20.3 billion in 2017.
中美货物贸易差额是美国经济结构性问题的必然结果,也是由两国比较优势和国际分工格局决定的。中美双边货物贸易差额长期存在并不断扩大,是多重客观因素共同作用的结果,并不是中国刻意追求的结果。
The gap in China-US trade in goods is a natural outcome of the US economic structure, and a result of the two countries’ comparative strengths and the international division of labor. The persistent and growing gap in trade in goods between the two countries is a result of a number of factors, rather than China’s intent.
第一,这是美国国内储蓄不足的必然结果。从国民经济核算角度看,一国经常项目是盈余还是赤字,取决于该国储蓄与投资的关系。美国经济的典型特征是低储蓄、高消费,储蓄长期低于投资,2018年第一季度,美国净国民储蓄率仅为1.8%。为了平衡国内经济,美国不得不通过贸易赤字形式大量利用外国储蓄,这是美国贸易逆差形成并长期存在的根本原因。自1971年以来,美国总体上处于贸易逆差状态,2017年与102个国家存在贸易逆差。美国贸易逆差是一种内生性、结构性、持续性的经济现象。美国目前对中国的贸易逆差,只是美国对全球贸易逆差的阶段性、国别性反映。
First, it is a natural outcome of a low savings rate in the US. From the perspective of national accounts, the balance of a country’s current account is decided by the relationship between savings and investment. The US economy is characterized by low savings and high consumption. Savings have been lower than investment for many years. In the first quarter of 2018, the US net national savings rate was as low as 1.8%. To balance its domestic economy, the US has to attract a large amount of foreign savings by trade deficit. This is the fundamental cause of the US trade deficit over the years. The US began to run trade deficits in its foreign trade in 1971, and by 2017 it was running trade deficits with 102 countries. The US trade deficit is an endogenous, structural and sustained economic phenomenon. The current trade deficit of the US with the rest of the world has shifted among its trading partners and resides with China for the time being.
第二,这是中美产业比较优势互补的客观反映。从双边贸易结构看,中国顺差主要来源于劳动密集型产品和制成品,而在飞机、集成电路、汽车等资本与技术密集型产品和农产品领域都是逆差。2017年,中国对美农产品贸易逆差为164亿美元,占中国农产品贸易逆差总额的33%;飞机贸易逆差为127.5亿美元,占中国飞机贸易逆差总额的60%;汽车贸易逆差为117亿美元。因此,中美货物贸易不平衡是双方发挥各自产业竞争优势的情况下市场自主选择的结果。
Second, it is a fair reflection of the complementarity and comparative strengths of Chinese and US industries. In terms of trade mix, China’s trade surplus with the US mainly comes from labor-intensive products and manufactured goods, and its trade deficit with the US lies in capital- and technology-intensive products such as aircraft, integrated circuits, and automobiles, as well as agricultural products. In 2017, China ran a US$16.4 billion trade deficit with the US in agricultural products, accounting for 33% of China’s total trade deficit in the agricultural sector; a US$12.75 billion trade deficit with the US in aircraft, accounting for 60% of China’s total trade deficit in this sector; China also ran a US$11.7 billion deficit in automobile trade with the US. Therefore, the imbalance in trade in goods is a result of voluntary market choices where both countries have played to their industrial competitive strengths.
第三,这是国际分工和跨国公司生产布局变化的结果。随着全球价值链和国际分工深入发展,跨国公司利用中国生产成本低、配套生产能力强、基础设施条件好等优势,来华投资设厂组装制造产品,销往包括美国在内的全球市场。从贸易主体看,据中国海关统计,2017年中国对美货物贸易顺差的59%来自外商投资企业。随着中国承接国际产业转移和融入亚太生产网络,中国在很大程度上承接了过去日本、韩国等其他东亚经济体对美的贸易顺差。据美国商务部经济分析局统计,日本、韩国等东亚经济体占美国总逆差的比值,由1990年的53.3%下降为2017年的11%,同期中国对美贸易顺差的占比则由9.4%上升为46.3%(图5)。
Third, it is a result of the international division of labor and the changing configuration of production locations by multinational companies. As the global value chain and international division of labor expand, multinational companies have come to establish factories in China to assemble and manufacture products and sell them to the US and the global market, thanks to China’s low production costs, strength in auxiliary production, and reliable infrastructure. When it comes to players in foreign trade, according to China Customs, 59% of China’s trade surplus with the US was contributed by foreign-invested enterprises in China in 2017. In the process of receiving international industrial relocation and joining the Asia-Pacific industrial network, China has, to a large extent, taken over the trade surpluses of Japan, the ROK and other East Asian economies with the US. According to US BEA, the shares of Japan, the ROK and other East Asian Economies in the total US trade deficit have declined from 53.3% in 1990 to 11% in 2017, while China’s trade surplus with the US has risen from 9.4% to 46.3% in the same period. (Chart 5)
第四,这是美国对华高技术产品出口管制的结果。美国在高新技术产品贸易方面拥有巨大竞争优势,但美国政府基于冷战思维,长期对华实施严格的出口管制,人为抑制了美国优势产品对华出口潜力,造成美企业丧失大量对华出口机会,加大了中美货物贸易逆差。据美国卡内基国际和平基金会2017年4月的报告分析,美国若将对华出口管制放松至对巴西的水平,美国对华贸易逆差可缩减24%;如果放松至对法国的水平,美国对华贸易逆差可缩减35%。由此可见,美国高技术产品对华出口的潜力远未充分发挥,美国不是不可以减少对华贸易逆差,只是自己关闭了增加对华出口的大门。
Fourth, this is the consequence of US export control over high-tech products exported to China. The US boasts huge competitive strength in high-tech trade. Yet, haunted by the cold-war mentality, it imposes strict export controls on China, thereby limiting the potential of advantageous US exports, causing significant lost export opportunities, and widening its trade deficit with China. According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in April 2017, if US export controls on China were relaxed to the level of those on Brazil, its deficit could be cut by 24%, and 35% if relaxed to the level of France. Evidently there remains a huge potential to be tapped in high-tech exports to China. If the US had not itself closed the door, it could well have seen its trade deficit reduced.
第五,这是美元作为主要国际货币的结果。二战结束后确立了以美元为中心的布雷顿森林体系,一方面,美国利用美元“嚣张的特权”向世界各国征收“铸币税”,美国印制一张百元美钞的成本不过区区几美分,但其他国家为获得这张美钞必须提供价值相当于100美元的实实在在的商品和服务。另一方面,美元作为主要国际货币客观上需要承担为国际贸易提供清偿能力的职能,美国通过逆差不断输出美元。美国贸易逆差背后有其深刻的利益基础和国际货币制度根源。
Fifth, this is the result of the US dollar being a major global currency. The Bretton Woods system established after WWII was based on the US dollar. On the one hand, the US uses its “exorbitant privilege” to levy seignorage on all countries. For the US the cost for printing a hundred-dollar bill is no more than a few cents, but other countries will have to provide real goods and services in exchange for that note. On the other hand, as a major global currency, the US dollar supports global trade settlements, and the US supplies US dollars to the world by way of a deficit. Therefore, beneath the US trade deficit lie profound US interests and the very root of the international currency system.
此外,美国统计方法相对高估了中美货物贸易逆差额。中美双方的统计差异长期存在,且差异较大。2017年,中国统计对美货物贸易顺差为2758亿美元,美国统计对华逆差接近3958亿美元,相差1000亿美元左右。由中美两国商务部相关专家组成的统计工作组,每年就中美贸易统计差异进行一次比较研究。根据该工作组测算,美国官方统计的对华贸易逆差每年都被高估20%左右。根据中国海关和美国商务部普查局的统计,双方统计结果在最近十年来的走势和变动幅度大致相同(图6)。引起差异的原因包括进口价格和出口价格之间的差异、转口贸易增值、直接贸易加价、地理辖区、运输时滞等。
In addition, US statistics exaggerate its deficit in trade in goods with China. There has been a significant and long-standing statistical divergence between China and the US. In 2017, Chinese statistics recorded a Chinese surplus of US$275.8 billion, while US statistics showed it to be US$395.8 billion, a gap of about US$100 billion. The statistical working group comprising experts from the USDOC and MOFCOM compare every year the statistics from China and the US, and estimate that the US statistics overstate the trade deficit with China by 20% every year. According to statistics from China Customs and the USDOC, the dynamics of and gap between the two statistics have been largely the same over the past decade. (Chart 6) Causes for divergence include differences between CIF and FOB prices, transit trade value-added, direct trade markup, geographical jurisdiction, and shipping time delay.
若以贸易增加值方法核算,美国对华逆差将大幅下降。中国对外贸易具有大进大出特点,中美贸易亦是如此。据中国商务部统计,从贸易方式看,中美贸易不平衡的61%来自加工贸易。中国在很多加工制成品出口中获得的增加值,仅占商品总价值的一小部分,而当前贸易统计方法是以总值(中国对美出口的商品全额)计算中国出口。世贸组织和经合组织等从2011年起倡导以“全球制造”新视角看待国际化生产,提出以“贸易增加值核算”方法分析各国参与国际分工的实际地位和收益,并建立了世界投入产出数据库。以2016年为例,据中国海关按照传统贸易总值的统计,中国对美顺差额为2507亿美元;但若根据世界投入产出数据库,从贸易增加值角度核算,中国对美贸易顺差为1394亿美元,较总值方法减少44.4%。
If calculated by value added, the deficit would decrease significantly. China’s foreign trade is characterized by large-scale imports and large-scale exports in processing, which applies to its trade with the US as well. According to MOFCOM, by trade methods, 61% of the China-US trade imbalance comes from processing. The value added in China accounts for only a small portion of the total value of many products, while the current approach is to calculate an export by aggregate (total value of goods exported). The WTO and the OECD started to advocate in 2011 a global perspective on production, and proposed to analyze the roles and benefits of all countries participating in the global distribution of labor by the approach of value-added accounting, for which the database WIOD was established. As an example, in 2016 conventional statistics show China’s surplus with the US to be US$250.7 billion. Based on the WIOD database and using the value-added approach, this would become US$139.4 billion, a 44.4% decrease from the aggregate approach.
(二)不应脱离世界贸易组织的互惠互利原则谈论公平贸易
2. The discussion of fair trade should not be detached from the principle of mutual benefit of the WTO
近年来,美国从倡导“自由贸易”转向强调所谓“公平贸易”,并赋予其新解释。现任美国政府强调的所谓“公平贸易”不是基于国际规则,而是以“美国优先”为前提,以维护美国自身利益为目标。其核心是所谓“对等”开放,即各国在每个具体产品的关税水平和每个具体行业的市场准入上都与美国完全一致,寻求绝对对等。在美国政府看来,美国与其他国家市场开放“不对等”使美国处于不公平的贸易地位,并导致双边贸易不平衡。这种对等概念,与世界贸易组织的互惠互利原则并不一致。
In recent years, the US has turned away from “free trade” to advocating so-called “fair trade”, to which it has added new meanings. Unlike previous administrations, the incumbent administration emphasizes a “fair trade” that is not based on international rules but “America first”, or the protection of America’s own interests. The core is so-called “reciprocal” opening, an idea of absolute equality, believing that all countries should apply identical tariff levels and provide identical market access in all sectors in their dealings with the US. In the eyes of the US government, the lack of reciprocity in market opening in other markets puts the US in an unfair position, and leads to bilateral trade imbalances. Such a concept of reciprocity is inconsistent with the reciprocal and mutually advantageous principle of the WTO.
世界贸易组织所提倡的互惠互利原则,考虑了各国发展阶段的差别。在世界贸易组织框架下,发展中成员享有差别和更优惠待遇。这种制度安排是在尊重发展中国家和地区发展权的基础上,积极吸纳新的发展中成员加入,以扩大成员数量、增强多边体制的包容性,也体现了以当期优惠换取后期开放的互惠原则。对于发展中成员而言,由于其处于发展初期阶段,需要对产业适度保护以促进良性发展,其市场随经济发展扩大后,也将为发达国家带来更多商业机会。发展中成员享有差别和更优惠待遇,符合包括发达成员在内的各国各地区长期利益,这种制度安排是真正意义上的国际公平。2001年,中国通过多边谈判以发展中成员身份加入世界贸易组织,享受发展中成员待遇。十几年来,中国经济实现了快速发展,但仍然是一个发展中国家。由于中国有13.9亿人口,经济总量数据显得较为庞大,但这没有改变人均发展水平较低的现实。根据国际货币基金组织数据,2017年中国人均国内生产总值8643美元,仅为美国的14.5%,排在世界第71位。2017年末中国还有3046万农村贫困人口。仅以中国经济和贸易总规模较大为依据,要求中国和美国实现关税绝对对等是不合理的。美国追求绝对对等的做法,违背了世界贸易组织最惠国待遇和非歧视性原则(专栏1)。
The principle of reciprocity of the WTO takes into consideration different development stages by granting special and differential and more favorable treatment to developing members. This arrangement aims to attract new developing members, increase the WTO’s representation and enhance the inclusiveness of the multilateral system, while respecting the right to develop of developing countries and regions. It enshrines the principle of mutual benefit in exchanging present favors for future opening. Developing members that are in the initial stage of development need appropriate protection for their industries to promote sound growth, which will provide more opportunities for developed countries in time. This differential and more favorable treatment is in the long-term interests of all countries and regions, including developed members, and this is genuine global fairness. In 2001, China joined the WTO as a developing member and has been treated as such. It still remains a developing country even after more than a decade of rapid economic development. China’s large population of 1.39 billion dilutes massive economic figures to low levels on a per capita basis. According to IMF statistics, in 2017 the per capita GDP of China was US$8,643, only 14.5% of that of the US, and ranking 71st in the world. By the end of 2017 there were still 30.46 million rural people living in poverty. It is unfair to demand absolute equality in tariffs between China and the US simply on the grounds of China’s economic aggregate and trade volume. The absolute equality approach also violates the MFN and non-discrimination principles of the WTO (Box 1).
世界贸易组织所提倡的互惠互利原则,是各国就所有产业开放市场实现总体互惠和利益平衡,并非狭义局限于每个产业或产品承诺水平对等。由于资源禀赋、产业竞争力的差异,很难实现两个经济体绝对对等开放,不同产业关税水平是有差异的。如果按照美国绝对对等逻辑,美国自身也有大量不公平和不对等的情况。例如,中国对带壳花生、乳制品和货车征收的关税分别为15%、12%和15%-25%,而据世界贸易组织关税数据显示,美国相应的关税分别为163.8%、16%和25%,均高于中国(表2)。
The reciprocity and mutual benefit principle advocated by the WTO means overall reciprocity and balance of interests in market opening across all the industries of the members, rather than narrowly defined reciprocity of treatment for a specific industry or product. Given the differences in endowment and competitiveness, absolutely reciprocal opening would be virtually impossible, and tariffs in different industries diverge. Even if we follow this absolute reciprocity logic of the US, unfair and non-reciprocal practices are more than common in the US. For example, China’s tariffs on peanuts in the shell, dairy products and trucks are 15%, 12% and 15-25% respectively, while WTO tariff figures show those of the US to be 163.8%, 16% and 25%, all higher than China. (Table 2)
事实上,中国在切实履行加入世界贸易组织承诺后,还主动通过单边降税扩大市场开放。截至2010年,中国货物降税承诺全部履行完毕,关税总水平由2001年的15.3%降至9.8%。中国并未止步于履行加入世界贸易组织承诺,而是通过签订自由贸易协定等方式推进贸易投资自由化,给予最不发达国家关税特殊优惠,多次以暂定税率方式大幅自主降低进口关税水平。根据世界贸易组织数据,2015年中国贸易加权平均关税税率已降至4.4%,明显低于韩国、印度、印度尼西亚等新兴经济体和发展中国家,已接近美国(2.4%)和欧盟(3%)的水平;在农产品和制成品方面,中国已分别低于日本农产品和澳大利亚非农产品的实际关税水平(表3)。2018年以来,中国进一步主动将汽车整车最惠国税率降至15%,将汽车零部件最惠国税率从最高25%降至6%;大范围降低部分日用消费品进口关税,涉及1449个税目,其最惠国平均税率从15.7%降至6.9%,平均降幅达55.9%。目前,中国关税总水平已进一步降为8%。
China, having fulfilled its WTO commitments, has voluntarily engaged in unilateral tariff reductions to expand market opening. By 2010, all commitments in goods had been fulfilled, with the overall tariff level decreased from 15.3% in 2001 to 9.8%. Yet China did not limit itself to WTO commitments; it has promoted trade and investment liberalization through FTAs, given special treatment in tariffs to LDCs, and significantly reduced import tariffs using provisional tariffs on several occasions. According to the WTO, China’s weighted tariff in 2015 had fallen to 4.4%, significantly lower than that of emerging economies and developing countries such as the Republic of Korea, India and Indonesia, approaching that of the US (2.4%) and the EU (3%). China’s tariffs on agricultural products are lower than the real tariffs of Japan, and lower than those of Australia for non-agricultural goods (Table 3). From the beginning of 2018, China further voluntarily cut the MFN rate on whole vehicles to 15%, and the MFN rate on auto parts from a maximum 25% to 6%. China has reduced import tariffs for 1,449 daily necessities, with the MFN rate down by an average of 55.9%from 15.7% to 6.9%. Currently, China’s overall tariff rate has been reduced to 8%.
美国所主张的“公平贸易”和“对等开放”,否定各国发展阶段、资源禀赋和优势产业的客观差异,无视发展中国家发展权,势必会对发展中国家经济和产业造成冲击,造成更大范围的不公平,最终也不利于美国企业扩大国际市场,分享发展中国家发展机遇。
The idea of “fair trade” and “reciprocal opening up” advocated by the US ignores the existence of objective differences among countries in terms of stage of development, resources, and competitive industries, and ignores developing countries’ right to develop. It will create an impact on the economy and industries of the developing countries, result in broader inequality, and eventually prevent American businesses from expanding their international market share and sharing development opportunities in the developing countries.
中国加入世界贸易组织后,为世界经济发展作出了重要贡献。国际上有的人认为,中国加入世界贸易组织是占了便宜,其他国家吃了亏。事实上,中国加入世界贸易组织后,中国低成本劳动力、土地等资源与国际资本、技术相结合,迅速形成巨大生产能力,推动了全球产业链、价值链发展,促进了世界经济增长。在此期间,外商对华直接投资持续扩大,规模从2001年468.8亿美元,增加到2017年的1363.2亿美元,年均增长6.9%,跨国公司分享了中国经济发展的巨大机遇。与此同时,中国在经济快速发展过程中也在环境、产业调整等方面承担了较大成本。
Since its accession to the WTO, China has made important contribution to world economic development. Some people think China has taken advantage of its WTO membership while putting other countries at a disadvantage. In fact, after China joined the WTO, it has provided international capital and technologies with low-cost labor and land resources, generating immense production capacity that has promoted the development of global industrial chain and value chain, and world economic growth. In this process, FDI to China has kept on growing, surging from USD46.88 billion in 2001 to USD136.32 billion in 2017, at an annual growth of 6.9%. Multinationals have shared the immense opportunities in China’s economic development. In the meantime, China has paid a high cost in environment and industrial restructuring as its economy grows rapidly.
(三)不应违背契约精神指责中国进行强制技术转让
3. China should not be accused of forced technology transfer as it is against the spirit of contract
中国改革开放以来,外国企业为了拓展新兴市场、节约生产支出、实现规模效益和延长技术获利时间,主动与中国企业建立合作伙伴关系,订立契约合同,把产能和订单向中国转移,这完全是基于商业利益的企业自愿行为。不能因为中国企业的技术进步,就把原本双方自愿的交易活动歪曲为强制技术转让,这既不符合历史事实,也是对契约精神的背弃。
Since the adoption of reform and opening-up, foreign enterprises have established partnerships with Chinese companies by voluntarily entering into contracts. They transferred production capacity and orders to China of their own volition so as to tap into the emerging market, save production costs, achieve economy of scale, and extend the term of profiting from technologies. These are voluntary behaviors based on business interests. However, it accords with neither historical facts nor the spirit of contract to unjustly label bilateral transactions on a voluntary basis as forced technology transfer simply on the grounds of Chinese firms’ technological advances.
中国与美国等发达国家合作过程中发生的技术转移,源自发达国家企业出于利益最大化考虑的主动技术转让及产业转移。产品生命周期理论表明,任何一种产品都会因新技术的应用而经历一个由盛到衰的生命周期。跨国公司在努力开发新技术的同时,需要不断向发展中国家转让已落后或是标准化了的技术,以延长依靠旧技术获取利润的时间,并为新技术研发应用腾出空间和要素资源,也间接分担研发成本,技术转让和许可是常用的商业合作模式。上世纪90年代以来,微软、英特尔、高通、宝洁、通用电气、朗讯等美国公司相继在中国设立研发机构,目的是更好适应和开发中国市场。多年来美国在华企业通过技术转让与许可获得了巨额利益回报,是技术合作的最大受益者。
Technology transfer in the course of cooperation between China and developed countries such as the US is voluntary technology transfer and industrial transfer initiated by the enterprises of developed countries keen to maximize their interests. The product life-cycle theory indicates that any kind of product goes through a life-cycle from peak to decline due to application of new technologies. While endeavoring to develop new technologies, multinationals continuously transfer technologies that are either obsolete or standardized to developing countries with a view to extending the term of profiting from old technologies, making room and sparing production factors for R&D and application of new ones, and indirectly sharing R&D costs. Therefore, technology transfer and licensing is a widely-used business cooperation model. Since the 1990s, Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm, P&G, GE, Lucent, and other American companies have set up R&D facilities in China in a bid to better adapt to and explore the Chinese market. Over the years, American firms in China have earned handsome profits through technology transfer and licensing. They are the largest beneficiary of technological cooperation.
在中外企业合作中,中国政府没有强制要求外商投资企业转让技术的政策和做法。中外企业技术合作和其他经贸合作完全是基于自愿原则实施的契约行为,双方企业都从中获得了实际利益。一般来说,外国企业技术收入有三种模式:(1)一次性转让,可以按转让价结算,也可以折价入股;(2)销售的设备、零部件或产品中,包括技术收入;(3)技术许可,收取许可费。比如,当一家具有技术优势的外国企业销售设备给中国企业,中国企业由于不掌握设备的某些技术,需要长期多次购买设备提供方的技术服务和零部件,在此情况下,中国企业愿意以一次性付费的方式向外方购买部分技术。这种技术转让要求,属于企业在成本效益核算基础上的正常议价谈判,无论分次支付技术费还是一次性支付技术费,都是国际商业技术交易中常见的做法。美国政府将外商投资企业通过订立商业合同与中国企业建立伙伴关系、转让或许可其技术、共同在中国市场上获得商业回报的自愿合作行为称为“强制技术转让”,完全是对事实的歪曲。
In the process of cooperation, the Chinese government has never introduced policies or practices that force foreign invested enterprises to transfer technology. Technological cooperation and other forms of commercial cooperation between Chinese and foreign businesses are entirely voluntary and bound by contracts. It generates real benefits for companies on both sides. Generally speaking, there are three patterns of technology-related revenues earned by foreign enterprises: (1) one-off transfer through settlement by an agreed price or discounted equity participation; (2) technology-related income that is included in the sales of equipment, components or products; and (3) technology licensing fees. For example, a foreign enterprise with a technological advantage sells equipment to a Chinese company short of certain technologies related to the equipment. The Chinese company has to buy technical services and components from the equipment supplier multiple times in the long run. The Chinese company is willing to purchase some of the technologies from the foreign company for a one-off payment. Such requirements for technology transfer are normal price negotiations based on cost-benefit accounting. Such technology fee payments, be they in installments or in a lump-sum, are common practices in international commercial technology trading. It is a complete distortion of the facts that the US administration labels as forced technology transfer the voluntary behaviors of FIEs to partner with Chinese companies, transfer or license technologies, and reap profits together in Chinese market by entering into business contracts.
除此之外,中国在某些领域的股权合作符合中国的国际义务、各国惯例和实践,不能被混淆为“强制技术转让”。而且,近几年中国对外商投资的股权限制不断放开,外国企业自由选择权不断扩大(专栏2)。在此过程中,中外企业股权合作仍然不断深化,完全是双方基于商业原因的自由选择。
Besides, equity cooperation in some areas is in line with China’s international obligations and usual practices of many countries, and does not constitute forced technology transfer either. In recent years, China has eased restrictions on foreign equity (See Box 2), and given foreign businesses greater freedom of choice. In this process, equity cooperation between Chinese and foreign enterprises becomes deeper as a result of free choices based on commercial considerations by the two sides.
美国政府关于中国“偷盗”先进技术的指责是对中国科技进步艰苦努力的污蔑。中华民族是勤劳智慧、善于创造的民族,中国政府高度重视科学技术和教育发展,中国科技进步是中国长期实施科教兴国战略和创新驱动发展战略的结果,是全体人民特别是科技工作者辛勤劳动的成果。2000年以来,中国全社会研发经费投入以年均近20%的速度增长。2017年,中国全社会研发经费投入1.76万亿人民币,仅次于美国,位居全球第二,占国内生产总值的比重达到2.13%,已经接近经合组织国家平均水平。中国有2613所高等学校,10.9万家各类研发机构,超过621万研发人员,2017年研发人员全时当量达403万人年,其中企业占77.3%。2017年,有113家中国企业进入“2017全球创新1000强”榜单,仅次于美国、日本,位居全球第三。世界知识产权组织2018年7月发布的“2018全球创新指数”排名中,中国由2016年的第22名升至第17名。2017年,中国专利申请369.8万件,授予专利权183.6万件;发明专利申请量达138.2万件,同比增长14.2%,连续7年居世界首位;根据世界知识产权组织公布的数字,2017年中国通过《专利合作条约》途径提交的国际专利申请量达4.9万件,仅次于美国。有10家中国企业进入企业国际专利申请量前50位。美国前财政部长、著名经济学家拉里·萨默斯说:“你问我中国的技术进步来自哪里,它来自于那些从政府对基础科学巨额投资中受益的优秀企业家,来自于推崇卓越、注重科学和技术的教育制度。它们的领导地位就是这样产生的,而不是通过在一些美国公司持股产生的。”
That the US administration accuses China of “stealing” advanced technologies is an insult to China’s efforts to push for scientific and technological advances. The Chinese nation is known for diligence, intelligence, and ingenuity. The Chinese government sets great store by the development of science, technology and education. The progress in science and technology China has made comes from years of implementing a strategy of invigorating the country through science, technology and education and the strategy of innovation-driven development, and from the hard work of the Chinese people, especially scientific workers. Since 2000, the total R&D spend in China has registered an average annual growth rate of close to 20%. In 2017, China spent RMB 1.76 trillion in R&D, second only to the US, accounting for 2.13% of total GDP, and approaching the average level of the OECD countries. China has 2,613 institutions of higher education, 10,900 research institutions of all sorts, and over 6.21 million people engaged in R&D. In 2017, the full-time equivalent of R&D personnel in China reached 4.03 million man-years, of which 77.3% were in enterprises. In the same year, China ranked third after the US and Japan with 113 Chinese enterprises listed among “The 2017 Global Innovation 1000”. According to the “Global Innovation Index 2018” released by WIPO in July 2018, China’s ranking rose from 22ndin 2016 to 17thin 2018. In 2017, patent applications reached 3.698 million in China, of which 1.836 million patents were granted. China’s invention patent applications reached 1.382 million, up by 14.2% year-on-year, ranking 1stin the world for seven years in a row. According to WIPO statistics, China filed 49,000 international patent applications via the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) in 2017, second only to the US. Among the top 50 international patent applicants, ten are Chinese enterprises. As former US Treasury Secretary and renowned American economist Larry Summers once said, “You ask me where China’s technological progress is coming from. It’s coming from terrific entrepreneurs who are getting the benefit of huge government investment in basic science. It’s coming from an educational system that’s privileging excellence, concentrating on science and technology. That’s where their leadership is coming from, not from taking a stake in some US company.”
(四)不应抹杀中国保护知识产权的巨大努力与成效
4. China’s huge efforts and achievements with regard to IPR protection should not be dismissed.
中国在保护知识产权上的态度是明确而坚定的,在立法、执法和司法层面不断强化保护,取得了明显成效。美国政府2016年以前的官方报告,也积极肯定中国在知识产权保护方面取得的成绩。中国美国商会所做的年度商务环境调查显示,其会员企业在华运营的主要挑战中,知识产权侵权行为已由2011年的第7位降低到2018年的第12位。近期美国政府对中国知识产权保护的指责是有悖事实的,完全抹杀了中国保护知识产权的巨大努力与成效。
China’s attitude towards IPR protection is clear and firm. It has continued to reinforce protection through legislation, law enforcement and the judiciary, and achieved some notable successes. Official reports by the US administration before 2016 also acknowledged China’s achievements in IPR protection. The China Business Climate Survey Reports by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicate that, among the main challenges facing its member enterprises in China, IPR infringement has dropped from the 7thbiggest concern in 2011 to 12thin 2018. The recent accusations by the US administration about China’s IPR protection are unrealistic and completely dismissive of China’s tremendous efforts and achievements in this regard.
中国建立并不断完善知识产权法律体系,法律保护力度不断提高。中国在较短时间内建立起一套完备且高标准的知识产权法律体系,走过了发达国家通常几十年甚至上百年才完成的立法路程。目前已经建立了从法律、规划、政策到执行机构等知识产权保护、运用和管理的完整体系。世界知识产权组织前总干事阿帕德·鲍格胥博士曾评价称,“这在知识产权发展史上是独一无二的”。2013年,中国修订了《商标法》,增加了惩罚性赔偿制度,将法定赔偿限额从50万元提高至300万元,保护力度大幅度提高。自2014年启动的《专利法》第四次全面修改工作,提出了加强专利权保护的相关建议措施,包括加大对侵权行为的惩罚力度、完善证据规则、完善行政保护措施、加强网络环境下专利保护等。2017年修订《反不正当竞争法》,进一步完善了商业秘密的保护,明确市场混淆行为,拓宽对标识的保护范围,同时强化了对有关违法行为的法律责任。2017年10月1日,《中华人民共和国民法总则》施行,该法规定:“民事主体依法享有知识产权”,并明确规定商业秘密属于知识产权,加强了对商业秘密的保护。
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