政府报告白皮书：《关于中美经贸摩擦的事实与中方立场》

　　It will push up manufacturing costs and affect American jobs. A PIIE report contends that since 95 percent of the Chinese products hit by higher tariffs are parts and electronic components used in end products made in the US, raising tariffs on these Chinese products will only damage US businesses. According to the New York Times, electric motors and other components from China are vital to the US boating industry, and it is not easy for importers to find substitutes. Their profit margins are too thin to absorb the cost of 25 percent tariffs, and raising prices would cost them market share. General Electric estimates that new tariffs on imports from China could raise its overall costs by US$300-400 million. General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles have lowered their full-year profit forecasts due to escalating tariffs. Mid-Continent, the largest nail manufacturer in the US, said its sales would plummet by 50 percent after it raised prices to cope with its elevated steel costs, and that it laid off 60 of its 500 workers in June and planned to downsize by another 200. Mid-Continent’s problems have already spread downstream. For example, Semo Packaging has started to shed its workforce as a result of fewer orders from Mid-Continent and similar customers. PIIE also projected that raising tariffs on imported automobiles would cause 195,000 US workers to lose their jobs. If other countries retaliate in kind, 624,000 US jobs would be lost.

　　导致美国国内物价上升，消费者福利受损。美国自中国进口产品中，消费品一直占很高比重。根据美国商务部经济分析局统计，2017年消费品(不包括食品和汽车)占中国对美出口的比重为46.6%。长期进口中国物美价廉的消费品是美国通胀率保持低位的重要因素之一。美国设备制造商协会在敦促美国政府不要实施损害经济的关税措施时指出，关税是对美国消费者的税收。美国国家纳税人联盟在2018年5月3日写给国会与总统的公开信中警告称，保护性关税将导致美国消费品价格上涨，伤害多数美国公民利益。美国汽车制造商联盟在6月提交给政府的一份文件称，其对2017年汽车销售数据的分析显示，对进口汽车征收25%的关税将导致平均价格上涨5800美元，这将使美国消费者每年的消费成本增加近450亿美元。

　　It will drive up prices in the US and harm consumers. Consumer goods account for a considerable share in the US imports from China. The figure (excluding food and automobiles) stood at 46.6 percent in 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. For many years, the import of inexpensive yet quality products from China has been key to low inflation in the US. The US Association of Equipment Manufacturers has urged the administration not to levy economy-damaging tariffs, as they will only boomerang and increase the tax burden on US consumers. The US National Taxpayers Union warned in an open letter to Congress and President Trump on May 3, 2018 that higher protective duties would increase the prices which domestic consumers would have to pay and few people could hope to gain from such a change. The US Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers concluded in a June report to the government that based on its analysis of 2017 automobile sales figures, a 25 percent tariff on imported automobiles would drive up the average price by US$5,800, thus increasing the cost for US consumers by nearly US$45 billion every year.

　　引发贸易伙伴反制措施，反过来损害美国经济。美国政府向包括中国在内的很多重要贸易伙伴发动贸易战，已引发各贸易伙伴的反制措施，势必使美国一些地区、产业、企业承担大量损失。截至2018年7月底，包括中国、加拿大、墨西哥、俄罗斯、欧盟、土耳其在内的美国主要贸易伙伴均已宣布对其贸易保护主义措施实施反制，并相继通过世界贸易组织提起诉讼。例如，加拿大政府6月29日宣布，将从7月1日起，对价值约126亿美元从美国进口的商品加征关税。7月6日，俄罗斯经济部宣布将对部分美国商品加征25%-40%的关税。欧盟针对美国钢铝关税采取反制措施，将美国进口摩托车关税从6%提高至31%。

　　It triggers countermeasures from trading partners and will in turn hurt the US economy. The trade war waged by the US administration against China and many other important trading partners has led to countermeasures, and will cause huge losses to some regions, industries and firms in the US. As of the end of July 2018, major US trading partners including China, Canada, Mexico, Russia, the EU and Turkey had all announced countermeasures against US trade protectionism, and had filed lawsuits at the WTO. For example, the Canadian government announced on June 29 a tariff increase on US$12.6 billion of US goods, effective from July 1. The Russian Economy Ministry announced a 25 percent to 40 percent tariff hike on some US products on July 6. As a countermeasure to American duties on European steel and aluminum, the EU raised tariffs on US-made motorcycles from 6 percent to 31 percent.

　　美国商会指出，贸易战将导致美国相关州利益受损，得克萨斯州39亿美元的出口产品、南卡罗来纳州30亿美元的出口产品以及田纳西州14亿美元的出口产品或受到报复性关税打击。美国消费者选择研究中心称，美国政府实际上在用关税“惩罚”其选民，依赖出口的北卡罗来纳州超过15万个工作岗位、南卡罗来纳州6500名工人将受到报复性关税的直接影响。美国知名摩托车制造企业哈雷公司评估，欧盟的报复性关税措施将导致每辆销往欧洲的摩托车成本增加2200美元，会在2018年内给公司造成3000万至4500万美元的损失。为应对这一不利局面，哈雷公司已表示计划将部分摩托车制造产能转移出美国。

　　The US Chamber of Commerce has pointed out that a trade war will hit some American states. For example, Texas could see US$3.9 billion worth of exports targeted by retaliatory tariffs; South Carolina, US$3 billion and Tennessee, US$1.4 billion. The Consumer Choice Center stated that the US government is actually “punishing” American voters with the tariffs it introduced, as over 150,000 jobs in North Carolina and 6,500 workers in South Carolina, both being heavily export-dependent states, will be directly affected by the retaliatory duties. Harley-Davidson Inc., a famous American motorcycle maker, estimated that the EU’s retaliation will cost about US$2,200 per motorcycle shipped to Europe, forecasting US$30 million to US$45 million in costs linked to the EU tariffs for the remainder of 2018. As a response, the company is shifting the production of some bikes overseas.

　　影响投资者对美国经济环境的信心，导致外国直接投资净流入降低。不断升级的经贸摩擦使企业信心不稳，在投资上持观望态度。彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森指出，美国政府的“经济民族主义”政策不仅使美国在贸易领域付出了代价，在投资领域引发的消极后果也开始显现。近期，美国及外国跨国公司在美投资数量几乎为零，企业投资方向转变将影响美国的长期收入增长和高收入就业岗位，并使全球企业加速远离美国。根据美国商务部经济分析局数据，2016年和2017年第一季度，美国外国直接投资流入额分别为1465亿美元和897亿美元，而2018年同期已降至513亿美元。这一变化是美国对长期投资吸引力下降的结果。

　　It erodes investors’ confidence in the American economic environment and results in less net foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States. As the trade friction escalates, companies feel less confident and more hesitant about investment. Adam S. Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argued that beyond the cost of the trade war, the US government’s policy of “economic nationalism” has taken a toll in another important sphere: net inward investment into the US by multinational corporations – both foreign and American – has fallen almost to zero. This shift of corporate investment away from the US will decrease long-term US income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and accelerate the shift of global commerce away from the US. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce show that in the first quarters of 2016 and 2017, the total net FDI inflow was US$146.5 billion and US$89.7 billion. For the same quarter in 2018, the figure was down to US$51.3 billion. This is a result of a general decline in the US attractiveness as a place to make long-term business commitments.

　　六、中国的立场

　　VI. China’s position

　　经济全球化是大势所趋，和平与发展是民心所向。把困扰世界的问题、影响本国发展的矛盾简单归咎于经济全球化，搞贸易和投资保护主义，企图让世界经济退回到孤立的旧时代，不符合历史潮流。中美经贸关系事关两国人民福祉，也关乎世界和平、繁荣、稳定。对中美两国来说，合作是唯一正确的选择，共赢才能通向更好的未来。中国的立场是明确的、一贯的、坚定的。

　　Economic globalization is the trend of the times, and peace and development represent the shared aspiration of all peoples. It therefore runs counter to the historical trend when one simply blames economic globalization for the problems in today’s world and one’s domestic development, and attempts to bring the global economy back to the old days of isolation by pursuing trade and investment protectionism. China-US economic and trade ties concern not only the well-being of the peoples of the two countries, but also world peace, prosperity and stability. Cooperation is the only correct option for China and the US, and only a win-win approach will lead to a better future. China’s position is clear, consistent and firm.

　　(一)中国坚定维护国家尊严和核心利益

　　1. China is firmly committed to safeguarding its national dignity and core interests.

　　积极发展中美经贸合作、巩固中美关系是中国政府和人民的愿望。对于贸易战，中国不愿打、不怕打、必要时不得不打。我们有强大的经济韧性和广阔的市场空间，有勤劳智慧、众志成城的中国人民，有国际上一切反对保护主义、单边主义和霸权主义的国家支持，我们有信心、有决心、有能力应对各种风险挑战。任何外部因素都不可能阻止中国发展壮大。同时，中国将对受经贸摩擦影响较大的企业和行业给予必要帮助。

　　It is the hope of the government and people of China to promote business cooperation and develop stronger ties with the US. China does not want a trade war, but it is not afraid of one and will fight one if necessary. We have a highly resilient economy, an enormous market, and the hard-working, talented and united Chinese people. We also have the support of all countries in the world that reject protectionism, unilateralism and hegemony. We have the confidence, resolve and capability to meet all risks and challenges. No external factor will hold back China’s development. Meanwhile, the worst-affected Chinese companies and sectors will receive assistance as needed.

　　中国一贯主张，对中美两国经贸关系快速发展过程中出现的问题和争议，双方应秉持积极合作的态度，通过双边磋商或诉诸世界贸易组织争端解决机制，以双方都能接受的方式解决分歧。中国谈判的大门一直敞开，但谈判必须以相互尊重、相互平等和言而有信、言行一致为前提，不能在关税大棒的威胁下进行，不能以牺牲中国发展权为代价。我们相信，美国的成熟政治家最终能够回归理性，客观全面认识中美经贸关系，及时纠正不当行为，使中美经贸摩擦的处理回到正确轨道上来。

　　China maintains that problems and disputes arising from a fast-growing China-US business relationship should be addressed with a positive and cooperative attitude, through bilateral consultation or the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, in a way acceptable to both sides. China has kept the door to negotiations open, but negotiations can only happen when there is mutual respect, equality good faith and credibility. Negotiations cannot be conducted under the threat of tariffs, or at the cost of China’s right to development. We believe that mature political leaders in the US will eventually come back to their senses, see China-US economic and trade relations in an objective and comprehensive light, and redress misguided behaviors in time so that the efforts to resolve the trade friction between the two countries will come back to the right track.

　　(二)中国坚定推进中美经贸关系健康发展

　　2. China is firmly committed to the sound development of China-US economic and trade relations.

　　美国和中国是世界前两大经济体。中美经贸摩擦事关全球经济稳定与繁荣，事关世界和平与发展，应该得到妥善解决。中美和则两利，斗则俱伤，双方保持经贸关系健康稳定发展，符合两国人民根本利益，符合世界人民共同利益，为国际社会所期待。中国愿同美国相向而行，本着相互尊重、合作共赢的精神，聚焦经贸合作，管控经贸分歧，积极构建平衡、包容、共赢的中美经贸新秩序，共同增进两国人民福祉。中国愿意在平等、互利前提下，与美国重启双边投资协定谈判，适时启动双边自贸协定谈判。