政府报告白皮书：《关于中美经贸摩擦的事实与中方立场》

　　The global political and economic governance system has only become what it is through constant improvements, starting from the inception of the United Nations (UN), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The WTO is an important multilateral trading regime with a total of over 160 members. It is essential to global trade cooperation, and is widely respected and recognized in the world. However, the US frequently violates WTO rules. The number of cases where members requested a suspension of the application of tariff concessions, or suspended tariff concession obligations to the US due to the latter’s failure to comply with the rulings of the DSB, accounted for two thirds of all such cases between 1995 and 2015.

　　这一系列行为，是对国际契约的违背，是对经贸伙伴的不尊重，更是对美国国家信誉的损害。世界经济论坛发布的《2018年全球风险报告》指出，美国对多边主义秩序造成的侵害，以及美国阻挠世界贸易组织上诉机构新法官任命，将加剧2018年的全球风险。

　　These actions of the US violate international contracts and disrespect its trading partners, and what is more, undermine its credibility as a country. The “Global Risks Report 2018” released by the World Economic Forum pointed out that global risks will intensify in 2018, as the US erodes multilateralism and blocks appointments to the WTO’s appellate body.

　　美国政府破坏市场机制，直接干预商业行为。现任美国政府屡屡突破政府边界，对市场主体实施直接干预。例如，不顾商业规律，要求苹果公司等美国企业海外工厂回迁。此外，美国政府还对美国企业对外投资进行恐吓阻挠。例如，2017年1月3日，警告通用汽车，如果它继续在墨西哥制造雪佛兰科鲁兹型号汽车的话，将需要支付大额关税;2018年7月3日，威胁哈雷公司不得将生产业务转移出美国;通过社交媒体点名批评威胁企业高管，以各种借口加强对正常并购交易的审查等。

　　The US administration has undermined the market mechanism through direct intervention in business operations. The current US administration has time and again overstepped its purview to directly meddle with market players. For instance, it has demanded that Apple and some other American companies move their overseas factories back to the US, regardless of market rules. The administration has also intimidated and obstructed American companies making investments abroad. For instance, on January 3, 2017, General Motors was threatened with a heavy border tax for continuing to make Chevrolet Cruze models in Mexico. On July 3, 2018, Harley-Davidson was warned not to move part of its operation out of the US. Executives of American companies have been named and shamed on social media, as the administration tightens supervision over normal merger deals under various pretexts.

　　美国政府在双边经贸谈判中出尔反尔，不守承诺。中国历来高度重视维护中美关系稳定，特别是2017年以来，积极回应美国经贸关切，以极大的诚意和耐心与美国政府开展了多轮磋商，力图弥合分歧、解决问题。2018年2月下旬到3月上旬，应美国方面强烈要求，中国派团赴美举行经贸谈判。4月3日，美国公布对500亿美元中国输美产品加征25%关税的产品清单。面对美国反复无常、不断抬高要价的行为，中国本着最大限度通过对话解决问题的诚意，于5月初与来华谈判的美国代表进行了认真磋商。5月15日至19日，中国应美国要求再次派代表团赴美谈判，并在谈判中对美国诉求做了积极回应。双方在付出艰辛努力后，达成“双方不打贸易战”的共识，并于5月19日对外发表了联合声明。但是，仅仅10天之后，美国政府就公然撕毁双方刚刚达成的联合声明，背弃不打贸易战的承诺，越过世界贸易组织争端解决机制，宣布将对来自中国的产品实施大规模征税措施，单方面挑起贸易战(专栏7)。

　　The US administration has repeatedly backtracked and reneged on its commitments in bilateral trade negotiations. China sets great store by a stable China-US relationship. It has actively responded to the trade concerns of the US, especially since 2017. Multiple rounds of talks have been conducted with the US administration with utmost sincerity and patience, in an effort to narrow differences and solve problems. In response to a strong request from the US, China sent a delegation to the US for trade talks between late February and early March 2018. Yet on April 3, the US announced a 25 percent tariff on a list of Chinese exports worth US$50 billion. Despite this repeated backtracking and in the face of rising demands from the US, China has demonstrated complete sincerity in seeking a negotiated solution, and sat down for earnest consultations with a visiting US delegation in early May. At the US request, China sent another delegation to the US which actively responded to the US concerns in negotiations between 15 and 19 of May. Thanks to the strenuous efforts of both sides, a consensus was reached “not to fight a trade war”, and a joint statement was released on May 19. However, only 10 days later, the US administration tore up the freshly inked joint statement and broke its promise not to engage in a trade war. It bypassed the dispute settlement system of the WTO to announce massive tariffs on Chinese exports, thus unilaterally starting a new phase of conflict (Box 7).

　　五、美国政府不当做法对世界经济发展的危害

　　V. Damage of the improper practices of the US administration to global economy

　　美国政府采取的一系列极端贸易保护措施，破坏了国际经济秩序，伤害了包括中美经贸交往在内的全球经贸关系，冲击了全球价值链和国际分工体系，干扰了市场预期，引发国际金融和大宗商品市场剧烈震荡，成为全球经济复苏的最大不确定因素和风险源。

　　The US government has taken extreme trade protectionist measures, which have undermined the international economic order, caused damage to China-US trade and trade relations around the world, disrupted the global value chain and the international division of labor, upset market expectations, and led to violent swings in the international financial and commodity markets. It has become the greatest source of uncertainty and risk for the recovery of the global economy.

　　(一)破坏多边贸易规则和国际经济秩序

　　1. Such measures undermine the multilateral trade rules and the international economic order

　　在走向文明的历史进程中，人类社会已普遍接受一套基于规则和信用的国际治理体系。各国无论大小强弱，均应相互尊重、平等对话，以契约精神共同维护国际规则，这对于促进全球贸易投资、促进全球经济增长具有基础性作用。然而，美国政府近期采取了一系列违背甚至破坏现行多边贸易规则的不当做法，严重损害了现行国际经济秩序。美国政府多次在公开场合抨击世界贸易组织规则及其运行机制，拒绝支持多边贸易体制，消极参与全球经济治理，造成2017年和2018年亚太经合组织贸易部长会议均未在支持多边贸易体制问题上达成一致立场。特别是美国政府不同意将“反对贸易保护主义”写入部长声明，遭到亚太经合组织其他成员一致反对。美国猛烈抨击世界贸易组织上诉机构，还数次阻挠上诉机构启动甄选程序，导致世界贸易组织上诉机构人员不足，争端解决机制濒临瘫痪。

　　In the advance toward civilization, humanity has widely accepted an international governance system based on rules and credibility. Countries, big or small, strong or weak, should respect each other, engage in equal-footed dialogue and jointly safeguard international rules in the spirit of contract. This is fundamental to promoting global trade and investment and boosting global growth. However, the recent steps taken by the US administration that are contrary and even destructive to the existing multilateral trade rules seriously undermine the current international economic order. The US administration has issued open criticisms of the rules and operation mechanism of the WTO on various occasions. It has refused to endorse the multilateral trading system, and at the same time has adopted a negative attitude toward global economic governance, which caused the failure of the APEC Trade Ministers Meetings, in both 2017 and 2018, to reach consensus on supporting the multilateral trading system. In particular, the US administration’s objection to writing “opposition to trade protectionism” into the ministers’ statement was met with opposition from every other APEC member. The US lashed out at the WTO appellate body and repeatedly blocked the appointment procedures of the body, resulting in an understaffed appellate body and pushing the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism to the brink of paralysis.

　　(二)阻碍国际贸易和全球经济复苏

　　2. Such measures obstruct world trade and the recovery of the global economy

　　随着全球化进程发展，各国经济基于经贸关系的相互关联度越来越高，贸易已成为全球经济增长的重要动力。根据世界银行统计，全球经济对贸易增长的依存度已从1960年的17.5%上升到2017年的51.9%(图13)。

　　As globalization moves forward, the economies of the world are increasingly connected through trade. Trade has become a major engine for global growth. According to the World Bank, the international economy’s dependence on trade rose from 17.5 percent in 1960 to 51.9 percent in 2017 (Chart 13).

　　当前，全球经济刚刚走出国际金融危机的阴影，回升态势并不稳固。美国政府大范围挑起贸易摩擦，阻碍国际贸易，势必会对世界经济复苏造成负面影响。为了遏制美国的贸易保护主义行为，其他国家不得不采取反制措施，这将导致全球经贸秩序紊乱，阻碍全球经济复苏，殃及世界各国企业和居民，使全球经济落入“衰退陷阱”(表6)。

　　The global economy has just emerged from the shadow of the 2008 global financial crisis and the recovery is yet to be solidly-based. In this context, the US administration’s actions to instigate large-scale trade frictions and impede the flow of world trade will undoubtedly affect the recovery of the global economy. In order to mitigate the protectionist moves of the US, countries are left with no choice but to take countermeasures. This will disrupt the world economic and trade order, and hold back global recovery, damaging the interests of companies and people of all countries and pushing the global economy back into recession (Table 6).

　　世界银行2018年6月5日发布的《全球经济展望》报告指出，全球关税广泛上升将会给全球贸易带来重大负面影响，至2020年全球贸易额下降可达9%，对新兴市场和发展中经济体的影响尤为明显，特别是那些与美国贸易或金融市场关联度较高的经济体(图14)。世界贸易组织总干事罗伯特·阿泽维多表示，若关税回到关税总协定/世界贸易组织之前的水平，全球经济将立即收缩2.5%，全球贸易量削减60%以上，影响将超过2008年国际金融危机。贸易战对所有人都有害，特别是穷人将损失63%的购买力。历史教训一再表明，贸易战没有赢家，甚至会给世界和平和发展带来严重影响(专栏8)。

　　According to “Global Economic Prospects” published by the World Bank on June 5, 2018, a broad-based increase in tariffs worldwide would have major adverse consequences, which could translate into a decline in global trade amounting to 9 percent by 2020. The impact would be more severe on emerging markets and developing economies, particularly on those with large trade or financial market linkages with the US (Chart 14). According to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo, if tariffs return to the pre-GATT/WTO level, the global economy would contract by 2.5 percent instantly and more than 60 percent of global trade would disappear, creating an impact more serious than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. A trade war is detrimental to all, and particularly to the poor, who could lose 63 percent of their purchasing power. History has proven time and again that trade wars produce no winners and can severely affect world peace and development (Box 8).

　　(三)冲击全球价值链

　　3. Impact on the global value chain

　　当前，全球经济已经深度一体化，各国充分发挥各自在技术、劳动力、资本等方面的比较优势，在全球经济中分工合作，形成运转高效的全球价值链，共同分享价值链创造的经济全球化红利。尤其是以跨国公司为代表的各国企业通过在全球范围内配置资源，最大限度降低了生产成本，提高了产品和服务质量，实现了企业之间、企业与消费者之间的共赢。

　　In a deeply integrated global economy, countries form a highly efficient global value chain and share in the dividends of economic globalization through division of labor by harnessing their respective strengths in technology, labor and capital. Companies, especially multinational ones, minimize their production costs and raise the quality of their products and services through global allocation of resources, thus achieving a win-win result for themselves and for consumers.

　　美国政府通过加征关税、高筑贸易壁垒等手段在世界范围内挑起贸易摩擦，以贴“卖国标签”、威胁加税等方式要求美资跨国公司回流美国，将严重破坏甚至割裂全球价值链，冲击全球范围内正常的产品贸易和资源配置，并通过各国经贸的相互关联，产生广泛的负面溢出效应，降低全球经济的运行效率。比如，汽车、电子、飞机等行业都依靠复杂而庞大的产业链支撑，日本、欧盟、韩国等供应链上的经济体都将受到贸易收缩的负面影响，并产生一连串的链式反应，即使美国国内的供应商也会在劫难逃。根据中国商务部测算，美国对华第一批340亿美元征税产品清单中，约有200多亿美元产品(占比约59%)是美、欧、日、韩等在华企业生产的。包括美国企业在内，全球产业链上的各国企业都将为美国政府的关税措施付出代价。

　　By raising tariffs and erecting trade barriers, the US administration has provoked trade frictions worldwide. US multinationals are being threatened with “traitor” labels and punitive taxes if they do not move their operations back to the US. Such moves will seriously undermine or even break the global value chain, and jeopardize the normal flows of trade and resource allocation across the world. And because of the interconnections between countries through trade and economic links, they will also produce extensive spillovers, and reduce the efficiency of the global economy. For example, sectors such as automobiles, electronics and aircraft are all supported by complex, massive industrial chains. Economies on the supply chain, including Japan, the EU and the ROK, would all be adversely affected by contracting trade. Even US suppliers would not be immune from the subsequent ripple effect. According to the estimates of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, of the US$34 billion of Chinese products targeted by the first round of US tariff increases, over US$20 billion – nearly 59 percent of the value – are goods produced by companies from the US, the EU, Japan, the ROK and other economies operating in China. Ultimately, companies from all countries on the global industrial chain – including those from the US – would have to pay the price for tariff measures introduced by the US administration.

　　国际货币基金组织2018年4月17日发布的《世界经济展望》报告指出，关税和非关税贸易壁垒的增加将破坏全球价值链，减缓新技术的扩散，导致全球生产率和投资下降。彼得森国际经济研究所认为，若美国对中国施加贸易制裁并导致中国反制，许多向中国出口中间产品和原材料的国家与地区也将遭受严重冲击。

　　The “World Economic Outlook” report released by the IMF on April 17, 2018 noted that raising tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers will disrupt the global value chain, slow down the spread of new technologies, and lead to a drop in global productivity and investment. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) argued that if the US imposes trade sanctions on China that prompt countermeasures, many countries and regions that export intermediate inputs and raw materials to China will also take a heavy hit.

　　(四)贸易保护主义最终损害美国自身利益

　　4. Trade protectionism will ultimately hurt US interests

　　在经济全球化的时代，各国经济你中有我、我中有你，特别是大型经济体存在紧密的相互联系。美国政府单方面挑起贸易战，不仅会对世界各国经济产生冲击，也会损害美国自身利益。

　　Thanks to economic globalization, economies, particularly the larger ones, are highly interdependent. Ultimately, trade wars unilaterally initiated by the US administration will not only hurt other economies but also undermine US interests.

　　提高美国制造业成本，影响美国就业。彼得森国际经济研究所发布报告指出，95%被加征关税的中国商品是零配件与电子组件，它们被组装在“美国制造”的最终产品中，提高相关产品关税将损害美国企业自身。《纽约时报》称，中国生产的发动机及其他零部件对美造船企业至关重要，暂时无法找到替代品，造船企业利润空间基本不可能消化25%的关税成本，提高自身产品价格将失去市场份额。通用电气公司预测，美国对自中国进口商品加征关税将导致其成本上升3亿-4亿美元。通用汽车、福特及菲亚特-克莱斯勒等汽车制造商纷纷下调了全年利润预测。美国最大的铁钉制造商中洲公司表示，对进口钢铁加征关税致使其成本提升，产品价格被迫上涨，销售额预计将下降50%，公司经营面临较大冲击。今年6月，该公司已解雇了500名工人中的60名，并计划再解雇200名工人。中洲公司的困境还扩散到其下游的包装环节——与其合作的SEMO包装公司，由于业务缩减，已经开始裁员。彼得森国际经济研究所的评估指出，美国对进口汽车加征关税将导致美国减少19.5万个就业岗位，若受到其他国家报复性措施，就业岗位可能减少62.4万个。